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Outbreaks of coronavirus infections nearly doubled in the second week of November, and the number of outbreaks in private homes more than doubled, official Covid-19 statistics show.
There were 1,057 outbreaks of the disease recorded in the week through November 14, an increase from 572 in the previous week, mainly due to the sharp increase in the number of infections in households.
There were 954 outbreaks in households, up from 443 the previous week. Outbreaks in the workplace increased from 15 to 20, while outbreaks involving schoolchildren or staff decreased from 24 to 10.
There were 4,992 open shoots at the end of the second week, up from 4,202 the previous week. A total of 8,311 disease outbreaks have been recorded since the pandemic began in March.
An outbreak remains open until 28 days have passed without a new infection being detected.
The number of deaths related to the coronavirus surpassed 2,000 on Wednesday, as 12 reported deaths brought the number of deaths related to the disease in the state to 2,006 from the first death recorded on March 11.
The National Public Health Emergency Team reported on Wednesday another 379 confirmed cases of the disease, bringing the total number of cases in the Republic to 69,058.
Members of Nphet will meet on Thursday to discuss leaving the country for Level 5 restrictions, which expire on December 1. Senior officials are said to have clashed with medical director Dr. Tony Holohan during a meeting on Wednesday, as efforts continue in the government to come up with a plan to break out of the lockdown and manage the pandemic over the Christmas period.
According to three sources with knowledge of the meeting, senior officials emphasized to Dr. Holohan that the government, not Nphet, would make decisions about easing the shutdown and what restrictions would be in place during Christmas.
The latest figures show there are 290 people hospitalized with confirmed cases of the disease on Thursday morning with 20 hospital admissions and 23 discharges in the last 24 hours. There were 33 people in the intensive care units Wednesday night.
This is down from a high of 44 during the second wave of the disease in late October. The number of Covid-19 cases in ICUs peaked at 155 during the first wave of infections in April.
Geographically, coronavirus hospitalizations outside of Dublin reflect where cases are highest in the country as a proportion of the population.
Donegal has the highest incidence rate over the past fortnight with 295.9 cases per 100,000 people, followed by Limerick with 237.
Limerick University Hospital had the highest number of confirmed Covid-19 cases on Wednesday night with 38 cases and there were six people with severe coronavirus infection in its ICU.
Letterkenny University Hospital in Donegal had the next highest number of hospital cases at 36, but only had two people in the hospital ICU, overall the fourth highest number in ICU.
Nine new outbreaks were reported in hospitals in the second week of November, up from 11 the previous week, while outbreaks in nursing homes increased from three to six.
There were 221 patients at Limerick University Hospital due to infections or as a result of being a close contact of a case, up from 161 last week.
There were 133 off-work employees at Letterkenny University Hospital, of whom 49 had Covid-19.
Optimistic
Meanwhile, infectious disease expert Professor Sam McConkey is optimistic that Covid-19 cases will drop to 150 per day in the next two weeks, allowing for the gradual reopening of the retail sector in December. “The optimist in me expects the next two weeks to see a decrease in the numbers and to drop to 150 a day,” Professor McConkey told Newstalk Breakfast.
Professor McConkey said that while recent numbers weren’t as good as June’s, they were better than October’s and if the numbers continue as they are, that would allow for a gradual reopening of the retail sector on December 1.
Moving to level 3 when the level 5 restrictions are lifted will keep the country in a holding pattern with respect to Covid-19. Going to level 3 won’t fix the problem, but it will prevent the virus from spiraling out of control, he said.
The country may also need to consider other approaches in an effort to reduce Covid cases, he said. Such measures would include massive testing and breakdown monitoring in businesses, hostels, and other crowded environments where vulnerable people are present.
“These basic problems have not been solved,” he said.
Moving to Level 3 on December 1 would allow the retail sector to gradually reopen, he added. Toy stores could open and operate like supermarkets did during the first closure earlier this year with supervised queues and no entry without masks, he explained.
Professor McConkey said that given current Covid figures, the retail sector was unlikely to open before Dec. 1, as some retail groups had suggested.
Outdoor dining
Speaking later on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, Professor McConkey said he remained optimistic about how effective the Level 5 restrictions might be, noting that the most recent data from Nphet was from two weeks earlier, which included the Halloween period when people attended parties.
The challenge will be keeping the numbers low rather than “swinging” up and down, he said. Going to level 3 on December 1 can help keep the numbers low, while going to level 2 hasn’t kept the numbers low in the past.
“Level 3 is a temporary way to maintain level.”
The virus would be easier to control if the numbers were lower, making it possible to track cases “meticulously” and prevent transmission, he added.
Emerging testing centers in areas where there is an outbreak plus access to GP care for zero-hour contract workers would also help.
Allowing people living in crowded conditions access to a safe place where they can isolate themselves for 14 days would also prevent further spread of the virus and was a safe option, said Professor McConkey.
“We need a strict integrated control plan,” he added. A world-class public health service with sufficient staff and resources will control outbreaks.
The three sectors that faced the most challenges from Covid were aviation, retail and hospitality, he said. The aviation industry was going to be in trouble “whatever happens.”
It would be possible for the retail sector to reopen safely while the hospitality industry was the “real challenge”. It would be safer to go back to Level 3 restrictions with only alfresco dining. Indoor restaurants and pubs would be “riskier,” he warned.
Professor McConkey said that even if the numbers fell to the same levels as in June, there would still be “some work to do in January” to bring the numbers down.
Measures such as mass testing for public health personnel, sports participants and those who travel by air should be considered, he said.
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