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Ireland faces a second “new and dangerous” wave of coronavirus infections if the blockage is not handled carefully.
Professor Philip Nolan, who heads the Irish Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group, said we could face a “very dangerous” peak as the disease reappears when the measures are eased.
He told RTE’s This Week program on Sunday: “Right now, it appears that we are in control of the disease due to very strong public compliance with things like social dancing and measures like staying home.
“If we have no control, then the Taoiseach is correct (that we are not yet at the top), the number of cases will increase over time to a peak.
“As we seek to modify the restrictions to allow more activity, there is a real danger at that time if we don’t do it very, very carefully that we get a second wave of the disease itself, and very quickly.”
“If we make a mistake, we will see a rapid resurgence of the disease and a rapid and, in fact, very dangerous peak.
“So what we do after May 5 is critical to determining whether we have passed a peak or are facing a dangerous new peak.”
However, Professor Nolan hinted that the harsh restrictions could be eased if the current measures continue to work.
He said: “If it is confirmed in the next few weeks that the very strong measures currently in place have brought the disease under control and have brought reproduction numbers (the number of other people infecting a single person) below one, then it is reasonable. think about changing the behaviors and regulations that we see as other European countries are doing.
“I think the bottom line is that there are many things we can do safely without transmitting the virus, without the virus being transferred directly from one person’s respiratory tract to another.
“We need as a society in the coming weeks to discover very carefully what things we can do again, in what way, that makes it safe for us not to spread the virus while doing those things.”
“It’s perfectly safe to take a walk in the park as long as you keep a minimum distance, don’t overload the park, wash your hands before you leave, wash your hands when you get home, and watch Garda’s requests while you’re there.”
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