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A sustained increase in the number of Covid cases would jeopardize plans to reopen construction and other parts of society on April 5, political and public health leaders have said.
The warning comes amid growing concern over rising virus cases, with recent breakthroughs in jeopardy after three days in which total new cases were around 600 or more.
On Friday night, another 646 cases and 10 deaths were reported.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said the hope remains that rules limiting construction, outdoor activities and travel restrictions can be relaxed next month. However, he told Virgin Media that “reopening on April 5 of any kind will not be possible if we go in the wrong direction in terms of case numbers.”
The Taoiseach told RTÉ that “It doesn’t make sense to open up and have to close again.
“We have partially reopened the schools successfully, but we will be watching for those numbers and it is the journey between now and closer to April 5 that will determine the announcement of the 5 in terms of what we can do for April.”
Meanwhile, Professor Philip Nolan, a senior member of the National Public Health Emergencies Team (Nphet) told The Irish Times that an increase in the number of cases could lead to fundamental changes to the plan.
“We are at a particular juncture, the disease could go in any direction. I remain optimistic that we can get it back under control, but if we can’t, and if the number of cases starts to rise again, we would have to re-evaluate the position entirely. “
Situation ‘crossroads’
High-level coalition sources said the state was at a “crossroads” this weekend, with an additional effort needed for the entire population. “Nothing is guaranteed,” a source said, adding that there was a “need to reverse” current case counts.
While some key indicators of the disease remain encouraging, recent case numbers have caused nervousness. Work to identify transmission patterns has not identified a definitive cause behind the recent reversal, the sources said.
Government sources informed of Nphet’s concerns said that uncertainty about new variants of the virus was at the center of the fears. “We don’t know what level of cases is safe,” said a person who has seen communications from Nphet. There was, the source said, “great uncertainty.” Several sources agree that the information in recent days has become “alarming.”
There is awareness in the government that the next phase will be the last extension of the blockade, but also that some restrictions need to be eased in early April, as the public’s patience with the blockade is wearing thin.
Relaxing restrictions “it all depends on the numbers for the next few weeks,” the sources said, as experts will be closely watching the impact of the wider reopening of elementary schools next Monday.
Hospital admissions, intensive care numbers and the number of deaths were improving, but daily cases were “a concern because it is not clear that they will continue to decline,” said a government source.
However, some ministers are of the opinion that it would be unrealistic to expect the numbers to fall as low as they did after the first shutdown due to variations and the fact that more sectors of society are already open.
Vaccine tips
In the meantime, the Health Service Executive will be asked to implement new advice on the use of AstraZeneca in those over 70 years of age. The advice of Acting Medical Director Dr. Ronan Glynn is said to largely mirror that given by the National Advisory Committee on Immunizations. Sources indicated that while no decisions have been made, the likely outcome is that mRNA vaccines such as those from Pfizer and Moderna will continue to be administered largely to the cohort. AstraZeneca may allow more room for maneuver if there are deficiencies or difficulties in reaching some patients, but sources indicated that fundamental changes are unlikely to occur.
The Taoiseach spoke on Friday with the CEO of Johnson & Johnson, whose single-shot vaccine was approved for use in the EU this week. He also spoke by phone Friday with AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot to discuss the shortfall in vaccine deliveries. However, it is understood that there will be little consolation for the Irish side in the discussions, and Mr Soriot indicated that the company would have difficulty meeting its delivery targets in the second quarter of the year.
Martin said he would also have a conversation with US President Joe Biden during his online meeting to mark St. Patrick’s Day about Covid-19 and the global launch of vaccination. Millions of AstraZeneca vaccines are reported to be in stock in the United States as the country has not yet approved their use.
Supply difficulties are affecting plans for the next phase of the vaccine launch.
On Friday evening, the HSE wrote to GPs saying that the planned delivery of vaccines next week for people aged 75 to 79 was being “limited” so that available supplies could focus on vaccinating people aged 80. to 84 years.
About 100 of the 500 GP consultations that are scheduled to receive deliveries would be affected, he warned.
Under changes to take effect on Monday, Pfizer’s vaccine allocation to GPs will be based on the number of patients who are over 85 and over 80 and must be vaccinated “with the goal of complete the cohorts “.
No further shipments of the Moderna vaccine are expected until the end of March, the HSE said.
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