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A New Years lockdown may be unavoidable as intense festive socializing glances will lead to a January spike in Covid-19 cases.
Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan issued his strongest warning about another possible spike in the spread of the virus after the Christmas and New Year celebrations, which could see a return to tougher restrictions.
He said the chances of a significant escalation of infections in January are more likely than not.
Dr. Holohan also pointed to “anecdotal” reports of crowded restaurants within days of reopening and asked people to “steer clear” of these risky situations.
“If we honestly ask ourselves how likely it is that we can prevent a significant increase in infection in January, it is probably less likely than more likely,” he admitted.
It comes after experts predicted to the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) that the number of virus cases could, at a “conservative level”, reach 300-600 per day in early January.
But Dr. Holohan, in a letter to the government last week, indicated that the most likely scenario is 300 to 450 cases per day by New Year’s Day and 800 to 1,200 in the second week of next month.
When asked last night about the prospect of a third lockdown, he said: “We don’t want to be in a position where we have to do an assessment and recommend tougher restrictions.”
But he stressed: “If we have to do that, it is what we will do.”
Controlling the spread depends on people following the restrictive measures that are currently in place, he said, along with an efficient response from HSE to quickly jump on outbreaks at an early stage and control them, stopping the spread of the virus to the community in general.
However, there appears to be some concern about the strength of the HSE response if virus cases spike again.
The Government was also warned about the risks posed by Christmas outings for family members from abroad. – as well as people flying in to sunbathe and ski from Ireland for the next few weeks.
Potentially, they could bring the virus with them and help quickly undermine the progress of the lockdown long-won here.
Dr. Holohan spoke as a further 242 cases of the virus were diagnosed yesterday with no further deaths.
Research conducted on behalf of the Department of Health highlights how people are now less concerned about the pandemic.
At the same time, there is a slight increase in the virus’s five-day moving average and a 13% increase in the seven-day incidence rate.
78% of people say they stay home instead of going out compared to 90% in April.
Overall, this is a sharp drop in concern about the pandemic that is causing an increase in contacts and a greater likelihood of transmitting the virus.
There has been a drop in the number of people who believe the worst is yet to come and more are convinced that we have now seen the gloomiest days of the pandemic.
When asked about the possible imminent arrival of a Covid-19 vaccine, Dr. Holohan said that the European Medicines Agency – who will decide if Ireland and other European countries are given the green light – It will not meet until the end of December. Our high-level working group charged with planning its implementation will report on Friday, he added.
Irish independent
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