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COVID-19 CASES are on the rise and the country is living under a renewed Level 5 lockdown. The government will face increasing pressure from a scared public that is dealing with heavy restrictions in everyday life. Here are five questions decision makers need to answer to ensure they keep people on board in the fight against Covid-19.
Schools and daycare centers were among the first places to be closed at the start of the pandemic last March, when Covid-19 was a major unknown threat. They remained closed for the remainder of the school year and alternate arrangements were made for the Leaving Cert.
Schools reopened in September and the Government, and Taoiseach Micheál Martin, in particular, have hung their hat on this achievement as proof of a successful policy to maintain a semblance of normal life. Since then, we have been constantly told that schools are a safe environment and that transmission among children is low.
However, with Covid-19 cases rising to new heights in the third wave, many are wondering whether schools and daycare centers should remain open. The Government’s indications are that if the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) says they should close, it will be done. But certainty is needed quickly. There are hundreds of thousands of parents anxiously wondering if schools and daycare centers will be open next week, or if they will have to make alternative arrangements. And if the decision is made to close schools and daycare centers, parents will need to get an idea of how long this will last.
Is the increase in cases due to the new strain of the virus or the relaxation of restrictions during Christmas?
A new strain of the highly transmissible virus was blamed for a massive spike in cases in the UK before Christmas. It wasn’t on the radar when the government here decided to ease Covid-19 restrictions for the holiday season and there have been suggestions that unforeseen tension could be generating cases here.
So far this does not appear to be the case, but more data may be required. Virologist doctor Cillian De Gascun has said that as of December 29, only 16 cases of the British variant of Covid-19 had been detected in Ireland. But that’s only 169 cases. He said in recent days: “As a random selection, albeit small, of cases mainly from the community, these data would suggest that the UK variant of SARS CoV2, in a proportion of [less than] 10pc – not responsible for the recent significant and worrying increase in the number of SARS CoV2 cases ”.
Amid the political blame game for decisions made before Christmas, the government would argue that cases were always expected to increase after Christmas. However, no one predicted that it would be that fast. It would be helpful if ministers could put the quick rise to the new strain, but so far the research doesn’t seem to support this.
The government has faced some tough questions over the decision to ease restrictions in December. This line of questioning will continue the longer the current increase and restrictions last.
Is vaccine implementation happening fast enough?
The obvious answer to this is no, of course not. In an ideal world, it would not take until August for the vast majority of the population to be vaccinated. But there are supply constraints and Ireland is committed to the EU’s strategy for deployment, which includes waiting longer than jurisdictions like the UK and the US, which have been quicker to approve new vaccines.
People are frustrated by reports that thousands of vaccines have been delivered in Ireland but have yet to be administered. In recent days, the HSE has said the goal is for 25,000 vaccinations to be completed by the end of this week. Health Minister Stephen Donnelly said today that this goal has been increased to around 35,000. He had received 40,000 doses last Friday, with only 1,800 injections administered.
Under the plan for implementation, seniors are prioritized in nursing homes and healthcare personnel, with 20,000 people to receive the jab each week. All nursing home residents are expected to be vaccinated by mid-February.
The only vaccine currently available in Ireland is that from Pfizer / BioNTech, which requires two doses. The National Advisory Committee on Immunization (CANI) is considering a proposal to increase the administration of the first dose and delay the second so that more people begin the inoculation process earlier.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has suggested that current Covid-19 restrictions should remain in place as long as health and vulnerable workers are vaccinated. This could mean that they extend into February. It is a plan that will seem logical to many, but it is based on a smooth vaccine implementation and it is crucial that there is a firm finish line in place to keep the public on board.
Can the test and trace system cope?
There have been worrying signs of strain on Ireland’s tracing and testing system. Independiente.es reports today that the pressure is so great that the HSE may have to stop offering a Covid-19 test to everyone with symptoms in the coming weeks.
Anyone with symptoms of the virus is still being referred for testing as of now, but self-testing of those individuals may need to be dropped. HSE has already stopped referring close contacts of confirmed cases for automated testing as part of the effort to maintain effective response times for testing and contact tracing. This is to prioritize people with symptoms and close contacts are still advised to restrict their movements for 14 days.
Current testing capacity is around 25,000 per day. There have been delays in the notification of confirmed cases, as positive tests require validation before confirmation. Last Friday, Professor Philip Nolan from Nphet said more than 9,000 cases would be reported after such delays. He insisted that it does not affect case management or contact tracing. But it is an example of how the system is under pressure.
As has been the case since the start of the pandemic, reliance on the test and trace system is important to assure the public that the government and health service are keeping the virus under control. This confidence is being undermined right now.
What is the future of pandemic financial support?
More than 277,000 were being supported by Pandemic Unemployment Pay (PUP) of up to € 350 per week in the run-up to Christmas. However, renewed Covid-19 restrictions have led many companies to close their doors since then. That means the unemployment figure will have risen, and tens of thousands of people are expected to be laid off.
The government will maintain the PUP at its current rate at least until the end of March. But there is no certainty about what level of Covid-19 restrictions will be in effect at that time and how many people will be able to return to work before then. Current restrictions have led to the closure of hospitality, non-essential retail and other businesses such as gyms and cinemas. The more they continue, the more pressure there will be on the government to shape the future of the PUP and financial support for companies.
Businesses that were forced to close last week are receiving double pay for two weeks under the Covid Restrictions Support Scheme (CRSS). The Work Wage Subsidy Plan (EWSS) is also scheduled to last until the end of March and will be subject to review prior to that date. Workers and companies will want to be certain about the future of such support long before March 31.
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