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The reduction of the 5km limit, outdoor sports and the possibility of larger groups meeting outdoors should be considered this week by the government.
The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) will meet today to discuss what recommendations it will make to the government.
The cabinet subcommittee on Covid is meeting tonight to discuss what easing might be possible, in the context of a worsening economic outlook.
This morning, business lobby group Ibec lowered its Irish growth forecast for 2021, citing the duration of the current set of restrictions.
Today’s Cabinet Subcommittee meeting will be attended by Deputy Chief Medical Officer, the Taoiseach, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, Transport Minister Eamon Ryan, as well as a select number of high-level ministers and senior officials.
While the decision on which restrictions will be eased will largely be made at that meeting, a full cabinet meeting will be needed to approve the decisions on Tuesday.
The Taoiseach is expected to make a public address to the nation, probably around 6pm that night.
It occurs in the context of a worsening of economic forecasts with the Ibec business group lowering its projections for Irish growth in 2021 this morning.
So what can we expect?
The Taoiseach has already pointed out well in advance what is being considered.
Last week he came under pressure from his own parliamentary party to remove the 5km travel limit in its entirety, calling it “ridiculous” by some.
Lifting the 5km exercise limit is final, and ministers will consider increasing it to 10-20km or countywide, or removing the restriction entirely.
There will be a great emphasis on outdoor activities, and it is expected that outdoor sports will be given the green light for children. Orientation is expected to also allow for outdoor sports for everyone, where social distancing is possible, such as golf, tennis, and fishing.
While this will be good news for many, it is believed that not all measures will take effect on the same date, but rather that the government is opting for a gradual-based approach.
It is understood that the government will consider allowing more households to gather outside, and sources claim that they are well aware of people’s mental health at the moment, with some acknowledging that such gatherings are already happening.
The ministers will also discuss the possibility of a click-and-collect return, but a full reopening of retail is not on the cards for now.
The reopening of the construction sector will also be discussed.
Housing Minister Daragh O’Brien has been calling for the sector to get the green light to reopen since before Christmas.
Each week up to 800 home completions are lost per week as parts of the construction sector remain closed, with the industry arguing that Ireland is the only EU country where construction has stopped.
However, there is a question mark on construction, and some in the government are concerned that the return of the builders could jeopardize the full return of schools next month.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar told his party members this week that the total reopening of schools in April is a priority for the government.
However, a minister said that reopening construction should be a priority. Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said yesterday that he would like to see an increase in construction activity, but only if public health councils allow it.
Coveney said the government would only have a “very limited” scope to ease restrictions as the government is trying to make sure we don’t allow a fourth wave.
He said the approach taken will be “cautious”, adding that he understands that people would be “frustrated” by the government’s stance.
The Taoiseach indicated last week that the numbers authorized to attend funerals will be reviewed again, but also said it could not guarantee any changes.
While some TDs have requested that religious services be allowed to resume, it is understood that the mass will remain online during Easter week due to the R number remaining above 1.
Government sources said they are well aware of people’s frustrations, but say they are doing everything they can to ensure the most vulnerable are vaccinated by mid-May.
Varadkar said that a number of factors will be incorporated into his decision-making process this week, such as the number of cases, the R number, hospitalizations, ICU numbers and the vaccination schedule.
Speaking at his own parliamentary party meeting last week, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said that by the end of April, Ireland will be in a different position as everyone over 70 and those with serious underlying illnesses will have received their first dose of a vaccine.
He asked the members “to stay with him for a few more weeks.”
In April, the vaccine supply will increase sharply, with a source highlighting over the weekend that 23,000 vaccines were delivered on Wednesday and 27,000 on Thursday, noting that each injection represents progress.
Yesterday, there were 760,168 doses of Covid-19 vaccines administered in Ireland.
- 548,945 people have received their first dose
- 211,223 people have received their second dose
Due to the B117 variant, it is understood that the government is still very aware of the number of contacts that people will have in the coming months, so there will be a large concentration in the open air.
The government’s approach is believed to be one of understanding the level of public frustration, with the main goal of increasing the launch of the vaccine in April and protecting the most vulnerable.
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Micheál Martin is expected to give a broad description of the possibility of further easing of restrictions in May and June. Such future measures will depend on the numbers of cases and the vaccination figures that are favorable.
Economic forecasts
Economists expect a strong economic recovery in the second half of the year once restrictions are significantly lifted. However, the unexpected length of the current blackout period has forced some forecasters to lower their growth projections for the year.
This morning, business lobby group Ibec lowered its projections for Irish gross domestic product (GDP) by two percentage points.
Due to the duration and severity of the current restrictions, he now expects the Irish economy to grow 3.1% in 2021 instead of the 5.2% he predicted before Christmas.
In its latest quarterly outlook, the group said: “More than 650,000 people remain unemployed and another 310,000 depend on wage subsidies, current restrictions mean that most will remain there well into the second quarter. But we can start looking forward to the second half of the year ”.
However, although “an efficient vaccine deployment could see the beginning of our recovery in the second half of 2021”, the Ibec warned that normal commercial conditions will not return in all sectors “due to continued social distancing and health requirements public ”.
Unemployment is also likely to remain high until at least 2023, Ibec said.
Although a large number of workers are likely to leave the PUP “relatively quickly if construction reopens in the coming weeks,” Ibec expects unemployment to average 15.6% this year and 9.3% percent in 2022 .
Additional reporting by Ian Curran
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