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Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said that the latest numbers of coronavirus cases have been artificially low due to fewer tests being done on Christmas Day and St. Stephen’s Day.
Speaking on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland and addressing concerns that the latest restrictions will not reduce the reproduction rate (R rate) below one, the Tanaiste said “honestly, we won’t know until the restrictions come in.”
He added: “No matter what is done, we would expect to see an increase in cases until the New Year.”
He said that the availability of the vaccine “changes things” and we can now “foresee the point” at which we will have vaccinated those most at risk.
“I think there are reasons to say that the current restrictions should remain in place until they are done,” Varadkar said.
“But that also needs to be reflected in the kind of restrictions that we put in place because they need to be sustainable over a long period if not just three or four weeks.
Once the restrictions are eased, the numbers start to rise again in a few weeks, he said.
“I think with the vaccine now available, I think there would be a case of telling the Irish people that we should maintain these restrictions until such time as we have protected our healthcare workers and the most vulnerable.”
The launch of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine is scheduled to begin tomorrow.
When asked on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland if the start of the Covid-19 vaccination rollout marks the beginning of the end of the pandemic, Mr. Varadkar said: “I think so.”
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Tanaiste @LeoVaradkar says Level 5 only went into effect on December 24 and those restrictions won’t be reflected in a drop in the number of cases until the first week or two of January # COVID-19 pic.twitter.com/ubc6DMtC9o
– RTÉ News (@rtenews) December 28, 2020
He said rollout of the vaccine, which begins tomorrow in acute hospital settings in Cork, Galway and Dublin, will be slow at first, but will roll out over the next several months.
He said it will “increase rapidly” during February and March as more vaccines become available.
He said the vaccine supply is limited with about 40,000 weekly doses of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine throughout January, allowing 3% of the population to be inoculated.
Varadkar said the supply is limited, with around 40,000 doses per week throughout January.
He said that while vaccines will not eliminate Covid-19, they will allow us to “overcome this virus.”
He added that medical experts on the National Immunization Advisory Committee wanted vaccines to be started in acute hospital settings in the unlikely event that something went wrong, such as allergic reactions.
This was to “build trust,” he said, before moving into nursing homes.
He said we will see “a large number of people vaccinated” over the course of the next few months, which will reduce the death rate.
“That’s why we focus on those who need the vaccine the most first – those in nursing homes and healthcare settings.”
Varadkar said the cases may not have “decreased enough” by the time the restrictions are revised on January 12.
He added that “there are reasons to tell the Irish people that perhaps we should maintain those restrictions” for months until vulnerable people are vaccinated.
He said it takes “a good 10 to 14 days” for the effect to show up in the daily numbers.
“The Level 5 restrictions will only really go into effect for the next few days,” he said.
“We know that will not be reflected in a drop in the number of cases until the first week or two of January … a very small number of people attended the tests on Christmas Day and on St. Stephen’s Day, which has shown an artificially low number yesterday. “
Varadkar said he expects cases to increase until the beginning of the new year, before seeing a drop.
The goal is to open schools as intended in early January, he said, with no “plans” to reconsider that. “The advice we currently have is that opening schools works successfully and that these are relatively safe environments.”
Varadkar said the restrictions will be reviewed as planned on January 12, but does not expect them to be relaxed by then.
“I can’t speak for the entire government on this and things can change very quickly between now and January 12, but since the restrictions are only coming in now, I don’t think we’ll start to see the numbers drop until the first week or two January, so they would not have fallen enough for January 12. “
The health service’s executive clinical director, Dr. Colm Henry, has said that prioritizing residents and workers in long-term residential facilities is in line with the recommendations of the National Public Health Emergencies Team (NPHET).
Also on Morning Ireland, Dr. Henry said that vaccinations at 582 nursing homes across the country will begin on January 4.
The 10,000 doses received on December 26 will be used in all four acute hospital settings this week.
Deployment can only begin once all safety protocols are followed, including education and consent about vaccines, Dr. Henry said.
The country is on a third surge now, he said, and demand for tests is increasing.
A record 23,000 tests were carried out on December 22, Dr. Henry said.
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