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In the old days of the housing bubble, some people bought apartments and houses “off the charts”, parting ways with money before seeing actual bricks and concrete.
Today we have seen politicians in London and Brussels emulating the real estate developers and estate agents of that time, selling hard a treaty that the rest of us still cannot see and that we will have to spend some time working to get it.
Unsurprisingly, both Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the positives as each of them sees it: a fair competition policy, the so-called level playing field, and how you referee is the big win as far as to the EU.
As Dr von der Leyen put it: “We now have a fair and balanced agreement with the UK. It will protect our EU interests, ensure fair competition and provide predictability for our fishing communities.”
For the British, it’s about catching more fish and a “point-based immigration system” (which is not part of this deal; free movement regulations end for the UK on January 1 under the Withdrawal Agreement last year).
It’s all part of claiming that the deal achieves the key British goal of “regaining control of our monetary laws and seas.”
They are both selling a lot, because they both need their respective political systems to buy the deal. And they need the participation of the broader community of economic and social interests: companies, farmers, fishermen, students, voters, scientists, etc., who are affected by Brexit and its subsequent legal agreements.
And in terms of political acceptance, there is not much time for the EU or the Houses of Parliament to analyze the text and express their opinion on it.
The EU ambassadors will be briefed on the deal by Michel Barnier tomorrow, Christmas Day (in most of continental Europe, the 24th is more important than the 25th, but still, on Christmas Day at the office!) . And that’s the beginning of a rushed process.
The British Parliament meets again on December 30, with various Eurosceptic groups vying to produce their own analysis of just how Brexity the text is, while Parliament’s future relationship with the EU commission will no doubt want its own voice on it. agreement before any vote. . And why not? They have invested many hours during these last months of intense negotiations trying to assess the problem posed by the UK’s exit and what it needs from the future relationship with its largest trading partner and strategic ally.
This last part is also important, because we have focused rather myopically on fishing quotas and access to fishing grounds for the past few weeks, a fixation that is broken only by occasional discussions about how to punish each other for issues. competition and state aid. politics.
But the general reality is that the UK and Europe are where they are, and they’re not going anywhere. In other words, as always, geography triumphs over rhetoric. Britain and the EU need a very good working relationship because they are next door neighbors. The agreement includes some elements of security cooperation, which we do not yet know, but in other respects the situation will worsen.
Britain will drop the European arrest warrant in eight days, and will also be out of Europe’s main real-time political intelligence system, SIS II, ironically on the same day that Ireland enters the SIS II database. So despite Boris Johnson’s assurances that the UK will maintain anti-crime and anti-terrorism mechanisms, it is not entirely true. Things will change and the UK will lose the capabilities it has today.
The same goes for other aspects of the deal, such as road transport and aviation, less cabotage for British truckers, less flexibility for UK airlines – they can fly from point to point from the UK to anywhere in the world. EU, but they cannot fly. between EU airports – it’s less than they have today.
And Britain will no longer participate in the Erasmus student exchange program, preferring to start its own “Turing Exchange” scheme for British students, mainly, apparently, for cost-saving reasons (Johnson said the UK was a contributor net to European expenditure on higher education).
The big problem with the treaty is not having tariffs or quotas in merchandise trade. But there will still be a number of customs formalities to complete and verify, adding cost and complexity to trade between the EU and the UK.
The British government believes it is worth the extra red tape and red tape to implement the kinds of policies it wants. The European Commission believes that it has sufficient protections in the deal to deal with any serious competitive harm the UK may cause in the future.
Now both parties want to focus on the future relationship between these two great entities that share the same geographic region and much more. This is why Boris Johnson sounded so emollient, with a much friendlier tone than much of the anti-European rhetoric of recent months.
He said Britain had long had a difficult relationship with the EU, which he described as a noble project, and thought the two might enjoy a closer and more relaxed relationship with Britain outside the EU, but ready and willing to support the EU in key aspects. policies, in particular climate change, energy, transport and trade.
He said that “the UK must always be a great European power, outside of the main body of the EU, but there as a friend and supporter, able to lend our voice when needed and support it when needed at a strategic level.” But he said the “very dense integration process” in the EU was not suitable for the UK.
That’s just the initial salvoes in the sales pitches on both sides. It’s probably best to wait until you can inspect the bricks and mortar of the deal before deciding to buy or not to buy.
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