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95% of the future EU-UK relationship treaty is understood to have been completed, but large gaps remain in key stumbling blocks, including fishing, and how disputes will be resolved.
Despite the progress, Member States are now considering whether an agreement that can be reached in the next few days should be provisionally applied from 1 January and ratified later, due to time constraints.
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier was supposed to inform member states this morning, but because a high-ranking member of his team tested positive for coronavirus yesterday, European Commission Secretary General Ilze Juhansone gave the Informative session.
It is understood that Member States were told that 95% of the text was complete, but large gaps still existed in fisheries, the so-called level playing field, governance and how disputes will be resolved.
There is also a growing concern that the process will not take enough time.
The transition period ends at 11pm on December 31 and any deal will have to go through a series of time-consuming legal procedures, including ratification by the European Parliament.
On the one hand, some member states say that no-deal emergency contingency plans should be published now. On the other hand, officials are looking for ways to solve the problem of time.
One idea is that any agreement will be applied provisionally from January 1, and that the legal and ratification procedures will take place later, perhaps at the end of January.
The UK would have to consent.
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The other issue is whether the treaty will be seen to affect only the exclusive competences of the EU, such as trade and agriculture, or whether it also involves competences normally reserved by the Member States, such as aviation.
Then it would be what is called a “mixed” agreement. But traditionally mixed free trade agreements must be approved by the 27 parliaments of the member states, and also by some regional ones.
That would mean that the treaty could take two years to enter into force.
Either way, the gaps remain so wide that member states believe that a no-deal outcome is still a highly possible scenario.
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