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BRITISH PRIME MINISTER Boris Johnson warned that it is “very, very likely” that the UK will not reach a trade deal with the European Union after Brexit.
Johnson said he was “hopeful” that progress could be made in the talks, but stressed that the two sides remain stuck on fishing and “level playing field” rules.
His comments came after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the positions of the negotiating teams remained separate on “fundamental issues.”
The two leaders agreed to make a decision on the future of the negotiations at the end of the weekend.
Despite statements by both parties that no trade deal is more likely than an agreement, it is understood that if the UK gives ground on equal terms and the EU gives ground on fisheries, a deal could be reached.
It is also expected that if one side moves first to compromise, the other side will do the same.
There is a way to go in the negotiations, but it seems very, very likely that we will have to go for an Australian-style solution. pic.twitter.com/7fEXe1FJTF
– Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 11, 2020
Talking to reporters on a visit to Blyth in Northumberland, Johnson said today: “Unfortunately right now, as you know, there are two key things that we can’t seem to move forward on.
“And that’s kind of a ratchet clause that they’ve gotten themselves into to keep the UK locked in whatever it is they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work.
And then there is the whole issue of fish, in which we must be able to regain control of our waters. So there is a way to go; we are hopeful that progress can be made.
“But I have to say that from my point of view now, here at Blyth, it seems very, very likely that we will have to find a solution that I think would be wonderful for the UK, and we would be able to do exactly what we want from January.
“Obviously, it would be different from what we had set out to achieve, but I have no doubt that this country can prepare and, as I say, come out on the terms of World Trade.”
Earlier, von der Leyen said that the UK would be free to decide whether to follow suit whenever the EU changes its regulations, although if it refuses, the bloc will adapt the conditions of access to its markets.
It is worth noting that around 97% of the agreement has been agreed and written in legal text.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said in previous weeks that “a landing strip” was in sight where negotiations could reach an agreement. Although the parties seem very distant now, that suggests that an agreement is still possible if the political decision to do so is made.
On equal footing and fishing
The level playing field measures aimed at preventing the UK from undermining the EU on rules and state subsidies have proven to be a major obstacle in the talks since they began in March.
On fisheries, the Commission President said the UK and the EU “have not yet found the solutions to bridge our differences” and urged the British government to “understand the legitimate expectations of EU fishing fleets built over decades. , and sometimes centuries, of access “.
“On these and other points, our negotiators are working. We will decide on Sunday if we have the conditions for an agreement or not ”.
She added: “One way or another, in less than three weeks it will be new beginnings for old friends.”
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron insisted he was not demanding to “have my cake and eat it” in response to a question about EU proposals that the bloc’s fishers could continue to access UK waters for a year. without an agreement.
Chief negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost continue talks in Brussels after Johnson and von der Leyen agreed at dinner on Wednesday to resume negotiations ahead of a decision on the future of the talks this weekend.
Downing Street refused to deny reports that Johnson had requested calls with the leaders of France and Germany, but was turned down, after he said he would be willing to return to Brussels, or head to Paris or Berlin, to work out a deal. .
The Prime Minister also said yesterday that the Cabinet should “go ahead and make those preparations” for an exit on terms like Australia, which does not have a trade agreement with Europe, unlike Canada.
But Malcolm Turnbull, who was Australia’s prime minister until 2018, told Johnson publicly that he should be “careful what you wish for” as Australia’s relationship with the EU “is not one from a trade point of view that I believe. that Britain would want, frankly ”.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden defended the British government’s description of a no-deal exit as trade in Australian-style terms, insisting that ministers were not “taking people for a walk.”
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The price of a no deal
The British Retail Consortium has warned that supermarkets and their shoppers would be hit by an annual £ 3.1bn “tariff bomb” without a deal, and 85% of imported food from the EU is expected to face tariffs in excess of 5%.
The pound continued to decline as traders’ fears of a no-deal Brexit intensified.
Against the dollar, today it hit a three-week low of 1,323, down 0.5%. Against the euro it fell to an 11-week low at 1,091, down 0.4%.
Ayush Ansal, chief investment officer at hedge fund Crimson Black Capital, said: “With a no-deal exit from the EU now possibly likely, the UK is heading for the worst possible outcome at the worst possible time.”
He added: “Some market watchers are even suggesting that the pound could fall to parity with the dollar in the event of a no-deal, which would be a symbolic knockout for the British pound.”
With reports from the Press Association
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