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Medical Director Ronan Glynn has confirmed that the average age of the 1,803 people who have died from Covid-19 is “late 1980s.”
It also confirmed that of those 90% of those who died had underlying conditions at the time of their death.
But despite this, Dr. Glynn and other aid officials who appeared at the Oireachtas Covid committee insisted that the virus poses a real risk to young people.
In a strong exchange with Fianna Fáil TD Jim O’Callaghan, who challenged the warning narrative towards young people and spoke about the exponential growth of the virus, Dr. Glynn said that the average age of those who died is close to 90.
“I would have to get the specific numbers, but it’s the late 1980s,” Dr. Glynn told O’Callaghan.
Mr. O’Callaghan asked what percentage of those who died had underlying diseases, Dr. Glynn replied, “I would have to get the specific numbers, but it is the late 1980s.”
O’Callaghan noted a “significant reduction” in the Covid-19 death rate in the past three months and Dr. Glynn agreed saying, “Yes, there have been. O’Callaghan asked: “For example, in March 2020, there were 85 deaths; April 1,176; May, 385; June, 88; July 29; August 14; And in September, it looks like there will be 27, depending on what Dr. Glynn announces later tonight. “To what do you attribute the notable decrease in deaths in the last three months?”
Dr. Glynn responded by saying, “I attribute this to the dramatic decrease in the number of cases and the demographic change of cases. There is also something to be attributed to greater knowledge and better case management. However, I want to make it very clear that if we see a sustained increase in the number of cases, particularly among those who are vulnerable, we will see more deaths in this country. ”
O’Callaghan said that while we have seen “exponential growth” in the number of cases, we have not seen a similar growth in deaths. He asked Dr. Glynn if he was right.
“Yes, we wouldn’t have expected to see that, but we do hope to see if the current pattern continues and if we see that growth in the number of cases in particular demographics and those with particular vulnerabilities,” Dr. Glynn responded.
Then, O’Callahgan asked when Dr. Glynn expects to see the increase in deaths if the exponential increase in cases continues.
“We have already seen an increase. We expect it to continue and increase significantly in the coming weeks. We have had four additional admissions to intensive care in the last 24 hours, ”was the response.
Another witness from the National Public Health Emergency Team, Professor Philip Nolan, appeared to disagree with O’Callaghan’s vigorous questioning. Refusing to speculate what the likely number of deaths will be in October, Professor Nolan said the risk to young people remains high.
“No, as Dr. Glynn said, it would not be appropriate to comment. However, the narrative line surprises me. One must compare like with like. We had big outbreaks in nursing homes in April and May, and we don’t have them now, so let’s eliminate those deaths. The fatality rate for those over 75 was 20% at the time. We know that we detect one in three cases of the virus. The mortality rate for those over 75 years of age since August is 5%, ”he said.
“Let’s be clear that we are still seeing very few cases in older people, but the risk of those people dying when they contract the virus is still very high. It was artificially high in April and May, because we were not detecting mild or moderate illness in those older people. Now that we are detecting the vast majority of cases, we are seeing something close to the true death rate from infection of approximately 5%. It would be very dangerous, therefore, to underestimate the ability of this virus to kill people when it infects them, “he added.
“We have seen 269 hospitalizations since the beginning of August. Of these, 153 patients are under 65 and 56 are under 40. The virus is as virulent as ever, but the difference now is that we are detecting a milder and more moderate disease, which we missed in April and May. When a serious illness occurs, it is as dangerous as ever, ”added Professor Nolan.
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