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As the negotiations between Britain and the European Union enter what should be their final days, the two sides remain stuck on the three outstanding issues of fisheries, guarantees of fair competition and how any deal should be enforced. Michel Barnier no longer isolates himself after a case of coronavirus in his team, but on Thursday night he had not yet agreed to travel to London for a face-to-face conversation after a few days of video conference negotiations.
British sources say they remain committed to reaching a free trade agreement and want face-to-face talks to resume as soon as possible, but that it is up to Barnier to determine his own travel plans. The mood in Brussels is pessimistic, and while Barnier will never declare the negotiations hopeless, others on the EU side are beginning to question how long talks that show no signs of a breakthrough should continue.
Britain’s inexperienced team of negotiators, led by retired diplomat David Frost and former Vote Leave campaign agent Oliver Lewis, has been kept in check throughout the process. The remaining moves that could break the stalemate are highly political and no one but Boris Johnson can make them.
This month’s departure from Downing Street by Voto Leave veterans Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain robbed the notoriously indecisive prime minister of his two most decisive advisers. But his departure has also increased Johnson’s political risk of allowing negotiations to end without a deal.
That risk is already huge, as this week’s spending review and accompanying forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility underscored. The independent fiscal watchdog predicted that a no-deal result would lead to 300,000 job losses, in addition to the 2.6 million expected to be unemployed by spring.
Fall of the pound sterling
Leaving the post-Brexit transition without a free trade agreement would not only reduce economic output by 2 percent, but would affect those sectors, such as manufacturing, that have been least affected by the coronavirus lockdowns. And an expected drop in the value of the British pound, coupled with tariffs on European imports, would raise prices for consumers.
British officials admit that the disruption at ports is inevitable even if there is an agreement, but it will be much greater without one and a spiteful end to the talks would make negotiating temporary agreements and implementation periods difficult.
Johnson’s decision to cut Britain’s commitment to international aid from 0.7% to 0.5% of GDP, even more generous than the 0.32% of Ireland’s gross national product, has blurred his message about a Global Britain after Brexit. And US President-elect Joe Biden repeated his warning this week that Brexit must not undermine the Belfast Agreement or the opening of the border.
The House of Lords this month removed clauses from the Internal Market Bill that would allow British ministers to breach the withdrawal agreement and its Northern Ireland protocol, but Johnson has vowed to restore them when the bill returns to the Commons. . If he fails to reach an agreement with the EU, he will have to continue that threat, preparing his government for an early confrontation with the incoming Biden administration in Washington.
Scottish friction
A no-deal result would also fuel increased support for Scottish independence, which has been far ahead of staying in the UK in polls throughout this year. Poll expert John Curtice said at an event at the Institute of Government this week that while there was little relationship between support for independence in the 2014 referendum and voting to stay in 2016, many of those who opposed Brexit they have since moved toward independence.
“You have to put aside what you would like people to think about the merits or not of Brexit,” he said. “The thing to understand, whichever side of the argument you are on, is that the pursuit of Brexit has undermined the aggregate level of support for the union in Scotland, as well as reshaping its character. And that is a political fact that must be understood and then dealt with ”.
A no-deal outcome is likely to accelerate that trend at a time when the coronavirus has placed Johnson’s leadership in unflattering contrast to Scottish voters to that of Nicola Sturgeon.
Johnson will have to make a decision on whether to commit to a deal with the EU without advice from Cummings and Cain. And if you decide to go for a no-deal, you will have to face the consequences without that team of activist fighters as you destroy your government reboot before it even started.
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