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Irish carriers and exporters said an alternative route to Europe must be found to avoid potentially massive queues at British ports from early January.
A leaked letter from the British government suggests that exporters to the EU face potential queues for trucks of up to 7,000 vehicles at ports if the industry does not prepare.
In the letter, the UK minister responsible for planning any deal described “a reasonable worst-case scenario”.
Michael Gove said that between 30 and 50% of trucks crossing the English Channel will not be ready and warned that UK imports and exports could be adversely affected for up to three months.
The Cabinet Office document states that, in the worst case scenario, between 30% and 50% of the trucks crossing the English Channel will not be ready for the new regulations that will take effect on January 1 from 2021.
A “lack of capacity to contain unprepared trucks in French ports” could also reduce traffic flow through the strait to 60-80% of normal levels.
“This could generate maximum queues of 7,000 trucks bound for the port in Kent and associated maximum delays of up to two days,” the documents said.
These delays could last at least three months, shippers were warned, as alternative routes are sought and supply chains become familiar with the new systems and requirements.
The president of the Irish Road Transport Association said that what is described in the letter would be chaos for Irish hauliers and result in a great loss for Ireland and the Irish Treasury.
Eugene Drennan said that a direct, fast and efficient daily service from Ireland to northern France is needed.
He said: “it is possible … but we do need some injection of funds from the Government or the EU, preferably to put a PSO … public service order in the shipment.”
Simon McKeever of the Irish Exporters Association agrees that alternative routes are needed, saying that whether there is a trade agreement or not, delays are inevitable with “some level of obstruction in British ports.”
He said that if there is a minimum deal, there will be more onerous customs procedures and controls if there is no deal.
McKeever said: “There will be a need to open more routes directly from Ireland to France and perhaps to the Dutch ports.”
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It comes as the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he remains determined to strike a deal with the UK when asked if such a deal was possible before the end of a transition period of the status quo.
When asked by Reuters on his arrival in London before the informal talks if he was optimistic about reaching a deal, Barnier said: “I am determined.”
“We remain calm, respectful, realistic and firm.”
He declined to comment on the British government’s domestic market bill, which ministers say could violate international law.
Gove is to outline the working scenario, which the Cabinet Office stressed is not a forecast, to MPs in the House of Commons today.
In his letter, Gove said: “Regardless of the outcome of the UK-EU negotiations, traders will face new customs controls and processes.
“Simply put, if traders, both in the UK and the EU, have not completed the correct paperwork, their products will stop when they enter the EU and there will be a disruption.
“It is essential that merchants act now and prepare for new procedures.”
But sector heads have accused the government of not doing enough in recent weeks because of the threat of post-Brexit border delays.
Logistics UK, formerly the Freight Transport Association, was furious last week after being told that the government’s Smart Freight system, designed to reduce the risk of cargo delays once Britain is out of EU rules, It would still be in test mode in January when British exports face new border regulations.
In response to the worst-case document, UK Road Transport Association Executive Director Richard Burnett said: “We have been constantly warning the government that there will be delays at ports, but they are simply not committed to the industry to find solutions.
“Traders need an additional 50,000 customs brokers to handle the mountain of new paperwork after the transition, but government support to recruit and train those additional people is woefully inadequate.
No-deal Brexit ‘hit UK economy harder’ than Covid-19
An academic think tank in the UK has warned that if no deal is reached with the EU in post-Brexit trade talks, the British economy could hit three times more in the long run than the coronavirus.
The group ‘UK in a Changing Europe’ says there may also be shortages of fresh food and medicine, queues at ports and borders and more “hassles” to travel to the continent.
A report by the organization, based on models with the London School of Economics (LSE), says that the impacts of the coronavirus can mitigate or hide the immediate impact of a no-deal exit.
But he warns that failure to reach an agreement with Brussels would have a significant long-term impact.
The authors write: “The claim that the economic impacts of Covid-19 outshine those of Brexit is almost certainly correct in the short term.
“Not even the most pessimistic scenarios suggest that a no-deal Brexit would lead to a production drop comparable to that seen in the second quarter of 2020.
“However, assuming a reasonably strong recovery and government policies succeed in avoiding persistent mass unemployment, in the long term, Brexit is likely to be more significant.
“Our LSE model of the impact of a no-deal Brexit suggests that the total cost to the UK economy in the long run will be two to three times higher than the Bank of England’s forecast of the impact of Covid-19. “
The report warns that a no-deal Brexit runs the risk of disrupting parts of the UK economy that have been resistant to Covid-19, not least food supply chains.
The transition period, which kept the UK aligned with the EU single market and customs union rules to allow trade to flow smoothly after Brexit, expires at the end of the year unless both parties agree to an extension. , something that Boris Johnson has ruled out.
Talks on trade agreements between the two sides continue, but the British prime minister has set an October 15 deadline for reaching an agreement; otherwise, he has said that he will simply withdraw from the negotiating table.
Professor Anand Menon, Director of ‘Britain in a Changing Europe’, said: “While the Prime Minister said that no deal is a ‘good result’, our report shows that it can cause significant disruption and will have a negative economic impact. significant.
“Just as important will be the political consequences of not reaching an agreement, in particular with the UK and the EU, but also within the UK, in particular Northern Ireland, and also internationally.”
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