[ad_1]
Imagine the mood in Downing Street today. The most Irish-American American president in history has been elected. As long as his health is maintained, Joe Biden will be in power for the remainder of Boris Johnson’s term.
Too much for a Tory landslide and the clear path created, post-Brexit, into the sunny highlands.
It’s a safe bet that Boris Johnson’s most trusted adviser Dominic Cummings knows little about Mayo soccer and its heartbreaking ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But since Wednesday morning the world has been captivated by the saga of a man with Mayo (and Louth) roots fighting for the victory of what at first glance was not just defeat but ignominy.
The Brexit negotiations will provide one of the first examples of how Joe Biden’s victory could impact international events.
In theory, those talks between the UK and the EU should reach a decisive stage in the next fortnight. But there is always the possibility to extend the haggling. The official UK departure date for the Brussels club is December 31.
Negotiation between top negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost is said to be stalled.
Some Brexit supporters, angered by their prime minister’s Covid-19 lockdown measures, including the U-turn, might be enjoying a good spat and a chance to walk out the door of Brexit negotiations.
But your hopes for a major new post-Brexit trade deal with the United States, as discussed with the Trump administration, may no longer be on the table.
For months, the British government was told how American Democrats with a keen interest in Irish affairs were exercising what was going on in the Brexit talks.
The Irish-American grouping was alarmed by the threat made by Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis that the UK might resist some of its commitments made in the Withdrawal Bill, which affects the island of Ireland. .
Dominic Raab, the UK Foreign Secretary, went to Washington and tried to defuse some of the tension.
However, his tactic was to offer iron guarantees on irrelevant matters. Raab’s promise was that the UK would never build security or customs infrastructure on its side of the border.
It did not address the obvious: that by breaking its word, the UK could pressure the EU to build infrastructure on the Irish (and EU) side of the land border to safeguard its domestic market.
Dominic Raab’s transatlantic voyages were made to meet with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, and influential members of Congress such as Richie Neal.
Raab’s tactic was to offer ironclad guarantees on irrelevant matters.
They were his most urgent skeptics. But over the weekend all that changed. The British now had a problem with the incoming American president and his administration.
In January, Boris Johnson fired his Northern Ireland secretary, Julian Smith. He is one of the few members of the Conservative Party respected by some of the leading Irish-American Democrats. How useful would it be now?
Over the years, many politicians, including Charles de Gaulle and Henry Kissinger, have related to the concept of “we have no friends or enemies, only interests.”
Be prepared for the UK test. Boris Johnson’s track record shows that he has the ability to make U-turns or ditch passengers from the bus rather than crash it.
If survivor Boris wants to close a Brexit deal and make a down payment for good relations with Joe Biden’s administration, will Dominic Cummings back him? And if there is a row, what position will it hold?
LOT OF IRELAND WON
Joe Biden is as close as possible to winning the Irish Lottery, and winning the Euro Lotto.
In this case, Dublin mandarins will not have to send genealogists to the parish registers of Tipperary or Connemara to trace one more migrant history. This president of the United States knows where he comes from.
“I have always been and always will be the son of Kitty Finngean, the grandson of Geraldine Finnegan of Scranton; a proud descendant of the Finnegans of Co Louth. The great-grandson of a man named Blewitt, whose roots come from Ballina in Co Mayo.”
At a time when Ireland’s closest neighbor is leaving the European Union, posing challenges to that important relationship, it suddenly has real new access to the White House. That should help little Ireland’s efforts to reconfigure its relationship with the UK and its limited weight at the EU table.
With Biden, good manners and commitment will be back in style.
Joe Biden’s administration will take power as Ireland prepares for its two-year term on the UN Security Council. Donald Trump had very particular views on the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the European Union and NATO.
With a change in the American perspective on the role of the UN, the chances of Ireland’s limited time as a member of the Security Council should increase.
The new situation should offer opportunities to the west and east, for the small island behind the larger island.
For Ireland to prosper, it must look and be active beyond itself.
Biden’s America should mean opportunities for Tourism Ireland, IDA and Enterprise Ireland. The new warmth in the relationship should translate into exports and trade.
Viewers of RTE’s Six One News bulletin yesterday saw a small glimpse of the possibilities.
The weekend program was expanded to one hour to facilitate the president-elect story. Presenters Caitríona Perry and Ray Kennedy were able to secure interviews with leading US politicians and former US Ambassador Kevin O’Malley on time.
We need your consent to upload this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage additional content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Review your data and accept it to load the content.Manage preferences
During the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Joe Biden’s Irish-American roots, his respect for the Good Friday Agreement and his concerns about the implications of Brexit for the peace process were raised in three interviews.
The new president will surely come to Ireland during his tenure. Maybe more than once. But official Ireland is likely to travel to see it before then. The Shamrock Ceremony at the White House, provided that Covid-19 allows it, will be an extraordinary green festival.
Every political party in Northern Ireland, including the DUP and the Ulster Unionists, will want to be at that event. Joe Biden made a mistake in the past that upset some union members. When he once welcomed Taoiseach Enda Kenny for St. Patrick’s Day shenanigans, he said “anyone who wears orange is not welcome.” Even Enda’s half smile was nervous.
But it was not intended to be insulting and the comment is unlikely to be repeated or mentioned again.
As the Late Late Show viewers saw, and as was obvious when Arlene Foster attended the funerals of Martin McGuinness and John Hume, DUP Leader and Northern Ireland Prime Minister Arlene can represent dignity and grace. Joe Biden’s natural disposition is to be welcoming.
Donald Trump was box office. Often observed with wide eyes. Regularly provoke “I don’t believe what I’m seeing” and “Did he really say that?” answers.
After ShowTime, get ready for Joe Time. Compared to what came before, it can sometimes get boring. Given the enormity and variety of challenges you face, you are likely to disappoint or fail on several major fronts. The weight of responsibility will take its toll on him, like any political leader.
But under Biden, good manners and commitment will be back in fashion.
The principles of live and let live were at the heart of the Good Friday Agreement. It is still a work in progress, but it continues to make Ireland, North and South, and our unfolding history a place of interest to the United States and the European Union.
Read more:
Joe Biden would be a friend from Ireland
[ad_2]