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The mutant variant of Covid-19 that has emerged in the UK is likely to be circulating in the Republic in the coming days, according to Irish virology experts; there are already four suspected cases in Northern Ireland.
Critical data is likely to emerge in the coming days that will confirm whether the new variant of Covid-19 is much more transmittable than other forms of the virus and poses a greater threat to the most vulnerable groups, especially the elderly.
More than 4,000 Sars-Cov-2 mutations had been observed by genetic profiling, of which perhaps a few appear to be of some significance. The variant discovered in south-east Britain, however, shows characteristics that may mean that it falls into the most problematic category.
Preliminary indications are that the new variant discovered in southeastern Britain could be up to 70 percent more transmissible and could increase the reproductive number (R-value) by 0.4 or more, the European Center for Prevention said on Monday. and Disease Control. So far, there is evidence that it does not appear to increase the risk of severe disease or the death rate.
The variant, however, was associated with 10 to 15 percent of cases in certain areas a few weeks ago, and last week it jumped to about 60 percent of cases in London.
The UK government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group on Sunday expressed “moderate confidence” that the variant demonstrated a substantial increase in transmissibility. They cautioned that the data was preliminary and largely model-based, meaning predicting likely scenarios.
Lab tests
Much of that critical data is likely to emerge through laboratory confirmation in the coming days, said immunologist Professor Paul Moynagh of Maynooth University.
As the variant had already arrived in Australia, “there is a good chance that it has arrived here [in Ireland]”He added. The National Virus Reference Laboratory at UCD is sequencing strains, but this variant has yet to appear.
Most concerning are the changes in the variant’s spike protein, the part of the virus that allows it to infiltrate cells in the lungs, throat and nasal cavity by interacting with a receptor called ACE-2, confirmed Professor Moynagh. .
The mutation in the spike protein may enhance the virus’s ability to interact with ACE-2, giving it “a biological advantage” over other strains, he said.
The spike protein is the part of the virus that vaccines are designed to develop antibodies against, so this mutation could prevent the vaccine from doing its job. That question needs to be answered through laboratory studies, he added.
There is much concern, Professor Moynagh said, about the possibility that the variant (known as VUI-202012/01) could “bypass the [Covid-19] vaccine “or that treatments such as” convalescent serum “- antibodies from people who have had Covid-19 that help patients recover – would become ineffective. But he believed that both possibilities were unlikely.
There is also the possibility that the variant will infect more efficiently, he noted. So, in asymptomatic people, it lasts longer. If that’s the case, you have a better chance of spreading disease.
One big concern is that it is not yet clear how many factors have been driving the stream lately. While the variant is likely to have influenced transmissibility, high rates of transmission have also been observed in areas with higher restrictions, not to mention recent revivals across much of northern Europe.
UCC immunologist Dr. Anne Moore said that it is always very difficult to unravel cause and effect in these cases, but there is already evidence that transmissibility is faster than is normally seen in communities, although there were not enough genomic data to reach a final verdict.
Increase in cases
The large increase in cases across much of Europe could be due to much more movement before Christmas, or indications that this variant is in wide circulation, or both. The UK is ahead of most countries in terms of profile variants emerging in populations, he added. Iceland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and Italy have reported some cases with the new variant.
Professor Ultan Power, Queen’s University Belfast, said the mutant strain may not be more dangerous, but, assuming higher transmissibility is confirmed, it meant that “more people are likely to become infected faster” and groups more vulnerable, such as older people, are more likely. get seriously ill with the virus.
“We do not yet know if the virus has really increased in severity, because transmission of the virus so far appears to be reasonably restricted to people 55 and under; the vast majority of them so far. “
This is a group of people who are less likely to become seriously ill, he noted. However, if the variant is transferred to the elderly, who are much more susceptible to serious diseases, “we will learn much more about whether the virus is more dangerous than the strains that are currently circulating,” Professor Power told RTÉ Radio 1 News at One..
There are indicators of sufficient concern for this variant to warrant widespread genetic characterization and global sharing of the resulting data. This must be combined with increased vigilance and interventions to curb transmission.
In such circumstances and in the immediate absence of a vaccine, Dr. Moore stressed that physical distancing, “even at Christmas,” remains the only sure way to stop transmission.
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