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This holiday weekend should have been one of the busiest of the year for Dublin Airport. If things had been normal, around 400,000 passengers would have passed through the terminals during the four days.
But these are not normal times, thanks to Covid-19.
Instead, the place is like a ghost town, with planes landed on the tarmac and small groups of eager passengers, mostly wearing masks, coming and going on occasional rescues / repatriations and scheduled flights.
It is an extraordinary sight. And a very disturbing one.
Because what we are witnessing now in the aviation industry is not only impacting the present, but it will have a great impact on the future of international travel.
Here are five reasons why:
Fewer airlines
When the health emergency phase finally rises and life begins to return to “normal,” it is a virtual certainty that there will be fewer airlines on the market.
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, there were a number of high-profile flaws, such as WOW Air, Thomas Cook, and most recently Flybe, Air Italy, and Atlas Global.
But industry insiders say this is an aviation catastrophe like never before, worse than 9/11. The Airbus CEO described it in recent days as the most serious crisis the aerospace industry has ever known.
European airlines alone could lose 70 billion euros in revenue this year, according to the industry organization, the International Air Travel Association.
Therefore, there will be more victims.
Norwegian Air warned it could run out of cash in mid-May, unless it approved its proposed rescue plan, which it did today.
Others, including Lufthansa and Air France / KLM, have lined up for multi-million dollar bailouts from their respective local governments.
Many struggling companies will either save themselves or find a way to continue, but not all.
So when travelers feel secure enough to book a trip abroad, they shouldn’t be surprised if there are fewer options.
Fortunately for Irish passengers, Ryanair and Aer Lingus are heavily positioned to pass. Ryanair and IAG, the parent company of Aer Lingus, have significant cash reserves on their balance sheets.
Enough, along with the reengineering cost structure announced last week, to continue for quite some time with fewer passengers, albeit at a high cost to staff who are likely to lose their jobs.
And on the other side of the crisis, they will face less competition, allowing them to take advantage of the completely changed aviation landscape.
Fewer routes
But with fewer airlines, there will inevitably be fewer routes.
Surviving carriers will be smaller, with fewer staff and possibly fewer planes on their books or on order.
Many will reduce the number of bases they have at airports around the world. Nor will they have the same amount of extra cash to invest in expanding their networks for some time.
Fewer airlines, fewer bases, less staff, fewer aircraft, less cash, and less demand – it all equates to fewer destinations.
So if you’re the type who likes to fly abroad frequently for long weekends in small, unpronounceable cities in Eastern Europe, you probably have fewer destination options in the future.
More expensive to fly
Nor will there be as many seats on the routes that survive. According to an analysis by the Official Aviation Guide, airlines have reduced seating capacity by 70% since the beginning of this year.
Even when restrictions are lifted and airlines find a new way to operate, that capacity will only slowly return.
Yes, as Ryanair and others have already pointed out, those airlines that still fly will discount the fares initially to get lazy in the seats, fill up the planes, and try to re-establish the habit.
But when the marketing sprees disappear, the substantial new debt will have to be paid that many carriers, leasing companies and airports will have to pay.
If some airlines choose to eliminate the use of intermediate seats for social distancing, as Easyjet proposes, for example, that will reduce the load factor well below the golden 75% required for airlines to be profitable.
Therefore, the remaining passengers will probably have to pay more to make up the difference.
There will also be additional operating costs for airlines, such as personal protective equipment, cleaning and hygiene, and slower response times, which will affect the frequency of the route.
And there may also be new additional charges for things that until now have been included in the ticket price, such as carry-on luggage or snacks included, etc.
The only chance of salvation could be that the cost of aviation fuel has bottomed out after oil prices fell in recent weeks.
That should help some carriers with their overall cost base, although many will have covered their fuel for next year at much higher prices.
Different travel experience
However, the big question that many airlines face is not only when people will want to travel again, but what measures to stop the spread of the virus will be acceptable to them during those trips.
Some aviation and public health experts have spoken about passengers who must wear masks on board.
Acceptable for a short distance journey from here to London or Spain, but how comfortable and effective would it be for a medium or long distance journey?
The cabin and aircrew are likely to have to wear masks, as well as other PPE.
There will probably be temperature controls for people entering and passing airports, as well as social distancing measures in queues.
Will that mean longer wait times in security and boarding, for example requiring people to be at the airport earlier for their flights? How comfortable will the airport experience be?
The Heathrow airport chief said it would be physically impossible to distance himself socially with any volume of passengers at an airport, so how will it work?
Should on-board food, beverage and shopping services be reduced and on-board magazines should be eliminated?
And when they get where they are going, or return to Ireland, will passengers have to isolate themselves for a period?
It could all be quite a difficult and possibly miserable travel experience, not to mention worry when the person sitting near you is coughing or sneezing during the flight.
Will people want to travel in such circumstances?
Less need for international travel
But aviation and travel are not the only aspects of life that have been transformed by Covid-19.
The way we work has been catapulted into a new reality, with video conferencing and working from home to the mainstream.
What was not previously an acceptable business practice has become the norm in a matter of weeks.
So once the dust settles, many people who have spent much of their working lives on an airplane will be left wondering: do they really need to go to another country for a three-hour meeting?
The answer will be more and more no.
And when it comes to vacations and short breaks, will increasing numbers of people rediscover the hidden joys of our native soil?
Distant hills may be greener and the lure of the sun is strong, but when nuisance, risk, and increased expenses are part of the equation, we might discover that people are more willing than ever to stay home.
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