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AFTER A FIRST quarter marked by supply setbacks, criticism of the EU Commission and a growing incidence of Covid-19, vaccine deliveries in April, May and June will be key for Ireland to protect its most vulnerable society and reopened.
As of Monday, 690,449 vaccines had been administered in Ireland: 503,796 were first doses with 186,653 people fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
A total of 855,360 doses had been delivered to Ireland as of Friday March 19.
Another 244,000 doses should be delivered by March 31 if Ireland is to meet its 1.1 million first-quarter target.
HSE CEO Paul Reid confirmed Thursday that he expects AstraZeneca to deliver more than 100,000 doses next week, in addition to Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna.
For the second quarter, what level of supply can we expect? And what setbacks could we find?
Speaking earlier this week, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen outlined the EU’s projections for deliveries over the next three months.
Johnson & Johnson is expected to deliver 55 million doses of its single-shot vaccine in the second quarter. Pfizer / BioNTech will also deliver 200 million doses in the second quarter, and Moderna will deliver 35 million doses.
“As for AstraZeneca, they will only deliver about 70 million doses. This is below the 180 million doses that they are contractually committed to deliver, ”von der Leyen said, addressing the well-publicized setbacks with AstraZeneca.
The President of the Commission concluded her comments by asking for “reciprocity” and “proportionality” in the distribution of vaccines.
While the UK has administered 43 doses per 100 citizens, and the US almost 37, the EU lags behind with 12.5 per 100 people.
However, since February, the EU has also exported 41 million doses of vaccines to 33 countries, von der Leyen said, including 10 million to the UK and 1 million to the United States, which has blocked its own exports to the EU.
This has understandably frustrated EU countries and put pressure on the Commission to act. Ireland is no different.
Relying on and operating within the framework of the EU, which takes a common block-wide approach to procurement and deployment, HSE and Department of Health officials can sit back and wait for weekly deliveries.
“However, open roads run both ways,” von der Leyen said. “And that is why we must ensure that there is reciprocity and proportionality.”
“We are ready to use whatever tools we need to accomplish that. It’s about making sure Europe gets its fair share, “said von der Leyen.
EU officials moved to toughen rules on vaccine exports on Wednesday, making authorizations dependent on destination countries behaving “fairly” in return.
Brussels had argued with UK-based vaccine producer AstraZeneca about supply shortages, prompting Britain to warn against “arbitrary lockdowns”.
The European Commission and Britain later issued a statement designed to defuse tensions, emphasizing that their interdependence in vaccine production means cooperation is needed.
It remains to be seen how the EU’s insistence on ‘reciprocity’ and this cooperation will affect Ireland’s deployment in April, May and June.
Ireland receives 1.1% of all vaccines allocated to EU member states. The doses of Pfizer / BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson to be distributed in the EU in the second quarter translate to just over 2.9 million doses for Ireland in April, May and June.
If all deliveries go as planned and all doses are delivered, more than 550,000 people in Ireland will be vaccinated with Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine, 192,500 with Moderna and 1.1 million people with Pfizer / BioNTech .
Can we be sure that all the doses will arrive to reach the Government’s goal of giving a first dose to 80% of adults before June 30?
An HSE spokesperson said it could not provide an exact estimate of how many vaccines Ireland will receive in April, May and June.
“Delivery times and quantities have changed a considerable number of times in recent weeks,” he said.
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“This is beyond our control and therefore we are unable to provide a detailed delivery schedule.”
A spokesperson for the EU Commission said: “The Commission does not provide information on deliveries of vaccines to specific member states.
“Member state authorities and vaccine providers agree on the details of deliveries to a specific member state.”
These answers do not provide certainty.
Senior HSE officials, internally at least, say they are confident that supply will increase in the second quarter.
An HSE source indicated that there are no guarantees regarding deliveries, but said Ireland should receive significant volume in April, May and June.
This is one of the reasons that HSE and the Department of Health do not provide weekly estimates of administered doses.
Source: HSE
HSE CEO Paul Reid said Thursday that HSE expects to receive 1 million doses between now and April 30, and one million doses in both May and June.
However, Reid said that Johnson & Johnson had not yet committed to a delivery date, but that it expects deliveries to start from mid-April to the end of April.
Between 95,000 and 105,000 doses are expected here next week, he said. These will be administered to people over 70, residents of long-term residential care facilities, and high-risk groups.
With a decision to ease Level 5 restrictions on Tuesday, and a growing incidence of Covid-19, Ireland’s vaccine supply will be closely monitored over the next several weeks.
Whether it goes according to plan or not remains to be seen.
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