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Senior health officials said it will be “some time” before vaccination can allow social restrictions to be eased in Ireland.
They also warned that we are in a “very different situation” than we were in spring 2020 due to mutations in the virus, and that we cannot expect progress at a “similar rate”.
The grim message came in the recently released National Public Health Emergency Team minutes, which covered the February 18 meeting.
And in addressing the possible reopening of the partnership, NPHET expressed serious concerns about a further increase in infections, adding that the number of cases remains “extremely worrying.”
The note reads: “The preliminary model presented by IEMAG suggests that there will be a continuing need for restrictions to suppress transmission until a sufficient proportion of the population is vaccinated to effectively suppress transmission by immunity alone.
“It was further noted that while emerging data shows that vaccines will play a critical role in managing COVID-19, it is simply too early to predict what the full impact of vaccines will be. Uncertainties and unknowns regarding variants and the vaccine Efficacy and absorption levels were recorded.
“A further increase in cases will have a detrimental effect on the launch of the vaccine and will extend the time it takes to successfully vaccinate the eligible population.”
“At this stage, the vaccine should not be seen as a control measure that will allow social constraints at the population level to be released and it could be some time before it can be trusted in that way.
“This view is supported by the fact that countries like Israel, which has one of the highest vaccination rates, is still exercising a cautious approach to easing restrictions.
“There is a danger that people have become accustomed to the numbers of cases. At no point before the pandemic had there been considered a relaxation of the restrictions on the numbers of weekly cases that are currently being recorded.”
“Although great progress has been made, incidence rates remain extremely worrying, and it is vital that people understand that significant additional improvement is required before large-scale easing of measures can be considered.”
And the NPHET experts also signaled a stark warning about newer variants of the virus, which will make it “more difficult” to suppress the disease.
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They added: “It is important to remember that the new variant of the virus makes it more difficult to reduce the R number and keep the incidence rate low.
“Making and maintaining progress is more difficult now than it was at the beginning of the pandemic, and new variants may emerge that are even more difficult to suppress.
“It is important to communicate to the public that this is a very different situation than the one they faced during the spring of 2020, and they should not expect it to progress at a similar rate.”
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