‘We are sailing very close to the wind here,’ warns Nolan

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Health officials have made a “note of caution” on the prevalence of Covid-19 in the community, warning that the country remains in a “precarious” state despite a gradual decline in the number of cases.

While many of the virus indicators are heading in the right direction, the increased mobility and planned return to school for many students next week is causing concern among health officials.

Some 592 new cases of Covid-19 were announced last night, in addition to 10 other deaths. There were 359 Covid-19 patients in the hospital, including 87 in the ICU.

At a health conference last night, Philip Nolan, chairman of Nphet’s epidemiological modeling group, said the number of hospitals has dropped from more than 2,000, but remains higher than at any stage in the virus’s second wave. The R number is stable at 0.6-1, he said.

Mobility data also shows that traffic levels are around 60% of a normal working day, which is in contrast to last April, when they were only 25%. There is a risk that this could lead to increased infections, he said, although he noted that the number of close contacts for confirmed cases remains low.

“We are sailing very close to the wind here … a gust of wind in the wrong direction, and we are in big trouble,” said Professor Nolan.

“It is essential that for the next several weeks we stay home, continue to limit our contacts and suppress the broadcast.”

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ronan Glynn asked parents to continue working from home when the children return to school.

Dr. Ronan Glynn, Associate Medical Director, and Professor Martin Cormican, Clinical Director, Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control, HSE. Image: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

Dr. Ronan Glynn, Associate Medical Director, and Professor Martin Cormican, Clinical Director, Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control, HSE. Image: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

“I would appeal to parents; please don’t take it as a sign to go back to work, ”he said.

“Please stay home, work from home if possible. We have to protect the achievements we have made.”

He said he is aware of the burden these restrictions place on workplaces.

But he cautioned: “If there are employers telling employees to go to work when they don’t need to, they are putting the progress we’ve made at risk.”

The vaccines are having a “phenomenal effect,” Dr. Glynn said.

He said, “We’re looking at two or three months where we have to go through with this … barring unforeseen events, there is a reasonable expectation that we will have a good summer.”

In the short term, there will be a vaccine voucher for the elderly and vulnerable who have lived restricted lives, said Professor Nolan.

This opinion was supported by Professor Karina Butler, chair of the National Advisory Committee on Immunization.

He said vaccinated older people could visit young children two weeks after their second dose, but stressed that visiting and hugging are not the same.

“The question everyone is asking is, ‘When can grandparents get hugs from their grandchildren?’” Professor Butler said.

Once the grandparents are protected, and when the rates in the community are reduced to that residual risk in the community and in the child; it’s down from very low to negligible, so that’s the time they can get together. “

Thursday marks a year since doctors reported Ireland’s first Covid-19 related death.

Since then, more than 4,500 people in Ireland have lost their lives to the disease.

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