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Taoiseach Micheál Martin announced an extension of the Level 5 restrictions as expected Tuesday night, but promised an acceleration of the vaccination schedule that would see more than 80 percent of adults receive their first dose by the end of June.
Insisting that “the end is really in sight,” Mr. Martin held out hope for a cautious reopening in April and widespread vaccination by the summer, but cautioned that easing of restrictions depended on continued suppression of the virus.
The government yesterday published a new plan, called Path Ahead, which outlines a cautious approach to breaking out of the blockade that has been in place since Christmas.
Schools will begin to reopen next Monday, but not all students will return to classrooms until mid-April and only if the number of cases continues to decline, hospital and ICU admissions decrease and the R number: the number of people who has the virus continues to infect – stays below one. The impact of next week’s return to schools for Leaving Cert students and younger elementary school children would be continually assessed, Taoiseach said.
But Martin declined to provide details on the benchmarks that would allow the reopening to proceed, and Deputy Medical Director Dr. Ronan Glynn said the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) would monitor not just rates of the disease, but also compliance rates with continued restrictions.
Dr. Glynn cautioned against interpreting the reopening of schools as a sign that “the brakes are off.”
“That would not be acceptable,” he said.
In a televised address to the nation followed by a press conference in government buildings, Mr. Martin sought to balance the promise of a further reopening with urging people to stay home and observe the restrictions for six more weeks. The government will review the restrictions at the end of March, he said. “When we reopen things, we want them to stay open.”
He said that by the end of March, 1.25 million vaccines will have been administered, and the next three months will see a million doses in each. By the end of June, 82 percent of adults would have received at least one dose, and up to 60 percent of adults would have been fully vaccinated with two doses.
Improved testing and tracking
Martin said yesterday’s reports that there would be a significant shortage in supply from vaccine maker AstraZeneca to EU countries in the second quarter were already included in government projections for the launch of the vaccine.
While Mr. Martin tried to give a positive note, there are caveats in the document not only about the severe financial situation facing the State, but about the future path of the disease.
The new plan warns that despite vaccination, “there are real risks that we may face the same challenges” in controlling Covid next winter as we did this winter. He says that the uncertainty about the impact of vaccines and variants, as well as the increase in the transmission of other viruses during the winter exerting a “double pressure” on hospitals, lapses in social distancing measures and fatigue that reduces adherence they can create more difficulties.
It is understood that Nphet also warned the government that the disease may be growing again among young adults and that there is considerable risk of a new wave if restrictions are eased before cases decline and vaccination has an impact.
The plan also outlines a future with improved testing and tracking, and a broader role for antigen testing, with an “aggressive testing strategy and a low threshold for intervention,” a greater emphasis on “integrated data and intelligence, and real time”.
More supports will be made available for those restricting movement or isolating themselves, but information on timelines is sparse in the plan.
Wellness supports
The plan also says that pandemic welfare supports will have to be reversed once the vaccination campaign accelerates, as the country’s finances cannot cope with the current level of spending beyond the “very short term.”
The plan says that while the government will extend pandemic support until June, this will absorb most of the contingency funds provided in the last budget and “a clear path will be needed to reduce this level of spending as soon as we enter the phase recovery ”.
In a blunt caveat, the new framework also says that “the internal tax base is not sufficient to meet this amount of spending beyond the very short term.”
“To ensure fiscal sustainability, therefore, these temporary spending measures will need to be reversed once the launch of the vaccine has progressed and the economy has reopened.”
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