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Source: Department of Health
THERE ARE CURRENTLY between 15,000 and 25,000 active Covid-19 infections in Ireland.
The case numbers being reported each day offer a glimpse of our progress, but public health officials remain focused on trends for several days and weeks.
A total of 2,955 new cases were confirmed during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, compared to more than 3,635 new cases reported during the same period last week and 6,500 cases in the previous week.
NPHET confirmed another 1,318 new cases last night.
Ireland’s national incidence rate is 397.1 cases per 100,000 population on a 14-day moving average, according to data from the Center for Health Protection Surveillance, compared to 621.9 on this day last week and 1,140.7 the previous week.
The country cut its 14-day average by more than 80% between January 14 and January 28. It has been reduced by 40% more since last week.
Ireland’s Breeding Number (Re) was estimated between 0.4 and 0.7 last week, having been between 0.5 and 0.8 the week before.
Since then it has risen again to between 0.5 and 0.8, according to the chairman of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group, Professor Philip Nolan.
There is the basic reproduction number (R0), which is the number of people who will become infected if other factors are not taken into account. Then there is the effective reproductive number (Re): the number of people who will be infected if other factors are taken into account, such as immunity from previous infection or vaccination or behavior that has been altered by social distancing measures.
SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to have an R0 of between 2 and 3.
In summary, the NPHET model from two weeks ago projected between 1,400 and 1,700 cases per day by January 31 if the R number stayed between 0.5 and 0.8.
Ireland tended slightly below that model with 1,300 cases per day, a positive result.
In that case, why does it appear that cases have stalled or even increased?
First, public health officials have noticed a sharp reduction in the number of people showing up for tests on weekends compared to weekdays. This has a mid-week knock-on effect on the number of cases, as more people get tested on Mondays.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ronan Glynn also pointed out last night that people are waiting two to three days before showing up for testing and encouraged anyone with symptoms to get tested immediately.
Second, the HSE resumed testing of asymptomatic close contacts last Friday. Professor Nolan said that this will also affect the number of cases in the coming days.
When looking at 14-day incidence rates in individual counties, Monaghan has the highest Covid-19 incidence in Ireland at 876.4 cases per 100,000, a further 40% reduction from last week.
Waterford is the second highest county in Ireland with a 14-day incidence rate of 612.9. Louth is the third highest with a 14-day incidence rate of 609.9.
As for the data from the local electoral area, Belmullet in May continues to be the area with the highest individual incidence of Covid-19 with 2,007.9 cases per 100,000.
Enniscorthy in Co Wexford has the second highest incidence of Covid-19 with 1,614.5 cases per 100,000.
Ballybay-Clones in Co Monaghan is the third highest incidence of Covid-19 with 1,501 cases per 100,000.
For a breakdown of Covid-19 incidence rates in LEAs in Ireland, see here.
The counties with the current lowest incidence rates include Roscommon (167.3), Kerry (188.2), and Leitrim (190.4).
‘Sprouts’
Six weeks after the Level 5 restrictions, public health officials and NPHET members are confident that people are complying.
It will be key to track where Covid-19 cases arise in the coming weeks.
Outbreaks in nursing homes, healthcare settings and hospitals are difficult to contain and take longer to close.
These infections will continue to contribute significantly to the number of cases over the next several weeks, considering the impact that the Third Wave of Ireland has had on these settings.
Medical director Dr. Tony Holohan said in a letter to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly last week that the number of infections acquired in healthcare settings remains “very high.”
Most worrisome in late February and early March are levels of community transmission, where the source of infection is unknown, and outbreaks in unsanitary settings.
Outbreak data from the Health Protection Surveillance Center shows that there were 29 new workplace-related outbreaks between Jan 22-30 with a total of 125 linked cases.
There were 15 new outbreaks in child care settings and 11 new outbreaks in food processing facilities representing 110 cases.
The total number of outbreaks since the start of the pandemic is 11,727. Of these, 6,678 remain “open” according to recent HPSC data.
For an outbreak to be considered “closed,” 28 days must elapse after the last case was diagnosed or became symptomatic.
Source: HPSC
This week, the Midwest Department of Public Health said it had identified “a growing number of social gatherings that have led to new infections and outbreaks in recent weeks,” which included nonessential home visits and large social gatherings.
Dr. Marie Casey, Specialist in Public Health Medicine, said colleagues are beginning to again see the initial evidence from student groups and urged all students to act responsibly and adhere to Public Health guidelines.
“We know this is a very difficult time for students with the restrictions in place. We recognize the many sacrifices they have made over the past 11 months and understand the need to visit friends and classmates in the current circumstances, ”he said.
“However, whether I am a student or not, home visits or meetings should not be taking place at this time,” Casey said.
“I have seen on numerous occasions how an innocent social visit to a home has caused serious outbreaks, and with the current high levels of Community Transmission, this can happen again if we are not vigilant.”
Hospital and ICU
There have been 92 hospital admissions in the last 24 hours and 82 discharges.
There are, as of this morning, 1,308 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the hospital and 188 people in the Intensive Care Units.
There were 1,620 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the hospital and 216 people in Intensive Care Units last Friday.
Source: Department of Health
Paul Reid, Executive Director of HSE, said today that current levels of community transmission continue to pose a “great risk” to Ireland’s health system.
HSE chief operating officer Anne O’Connor said a reduction in hospitalized cases since last week does not mean patients have left the hospital.
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It means they have been written off as Covid-19 cases, but many still require hospital care once they are no longer positive for Covid, he said.
Testing and tracing
Testing in January was limited by demand. Close contacts of confirmed cases were no longer evaluated, as the HSE prioritizes people with symptoms.
However, the HSE confirmed that asymptomatic close contact testing has resumed since last Friday.
The tests had risen to nearly 25,000 a day by early January. It dropped slightly to an average of 23,000 a day on January 14 and dropped further to an average of 22,000 tests a day between January 14 and January 28.
As of January 7, approximately 174,000 tests had been performed during the previous seven days. The positivity rate was 22.7%.
Approximately 167,000 tests were conducted between that date and January 14. The positivity rate dropped further to 17.9%.
As of January 21, approximately 154,000 tests had been performed during the previous seven days. The positivity rate was 11.8%.
Roughly 142,000 tests were carried out between then and last Thursday. The positivity rate had dropped further to 8.1%.
Approximately 131,000 tests have been performed in the last seven days through Thursday. The positivity rate is currently 6.4%.
Vaccinations
Finally, 219,200 vaccines have been administered in Ireland. There are 57,700 more doses administered since last week.
Of the 219,200 vaccines administered so far, 86,200 have been administered in long-term residential care settings, all of which have been first doses, with 133,000 administered to front-line healthcare workers.
Of these, 78,000 have received a first dose and 55,000 front-line health workers are now fully vaccinated.
The HSE said yesterday that another 29,000 vaccinations will be administered in 78 long-term residential care settings, to frontline healthcare workers and GPs next week.
Healthcare workers with direct patient contact, as well as residents of long-term residential care facilities over the age of 65, have been the first to receive the vaccine.
Both the vaccines currently used at launch, the Pfizer vaccine and the Moderna vaccine, are mRNA vaccines that require a two-dose schedule.
Reid, HSE CEO, said today that HSE “has always been clear that the launch of the Covid-19 vaccine will have many twists and turns” in the first quarter of this year.
His comments followed a recommendation from the National Immunization Advisory Committee (NIAC) on Wednesday that people age 70 and older should only receive mRNA, Pfizer / BioNTech or Moderna vaccines, when possible.
“So far we have overcome all challenges safely, efficiently and in a timely manner. Our plan is to meet the latest changing requirements in the same way. Bear with us for now, ”Reid said.
Reid said the HSE was now working on operational changes to realign the country’s vaccine plan and would present details on this to the government’s Vaccine Task Force shortly.
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