Zero Covid in months a ‘false promise’

by



[ad_1]

The idea of ​​having “Zero Covid” in Ireland in weeks or months is a strategy that offers a “completely false promise”, Professor Philip Nolan has said.

A group of academics presented the Zero Covid case to the Oireachtas Special Committee on Covid-19 last August.

They suggested “squashing” the virus by banning non-essential foreign travel along with testing, isolation and strict monitoring of people once they arrive in the country.

In recent days, some government TDs and opposition parties have expressed support for the approach.

Professor Nolan, who is the chair of NPHET’s Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group, said that there are two shared “pieces” between a Zero Covid strategy and the actual strategy that is being adopted now.

One is that the only safe position to be in is to have a community transmission level that is as close to zero as possible. The second element is that only essential trips are made.

He told an NPHET press conference that we should do everything possible, through any combination of testing and isolation, to limit the risk of introducing new variants or further infection.

We need your consent to upload this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage additional content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Review your data and accept it to load the content.Manage preferences

Latest coronavirus stories

But, he said, we had to accept that in this country no such system would guarantee the complete exclusion of any new variant or new disease.

In this context, Professor Nolan said that it was a “completely false promise” to suggest that we could go to Level Zero or Level One, under Living with Covid, in a matter of weeks or months.

He said it was much better “to work to lower the level of disease, keep it low and continue with the vaccination program.”

Earlier today, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly confirmed that 161,500 doses of vaccines have been administered here so far.

Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan also said that a Zero Covid strategy would not work. “We just couldn’t realistically seal the borders of this country and stop the movement of people in and out.”

There were 47 more coronavirus-related deaths and 1,466 new Covid-19 cases reported to the Health Department today.

The total number of people who have died from the virus is now 3,167, while the cumulative number of infections is 192,645.

The number of Covid patients in the ICU is 216, this is one less since yesterday. There are 1,567 patients with the disease in hospitals with 69 additional admissions in the last 24 hours.

The national incidence rate of 14 days per 100,000, as of January 27, is 622. It was 1,141 on January 20; this is a 54% reduction in seven days.

While this 14-day rate is significantly below its peak of 1,500 earlier this month, it is still double what it was in October.

Professor Nolan said: “The incidence is decreasing and working collectively to reduce contacts, we have achieved suppression of transmission with the R number estimated at 0.4 and 0.7”.

“If we continue like this, we would drop from 200 to 400 cases a day by the end of February.”

This would mean 600 to 800 people in hospital in the region, with 60 to 80 of them in ICU, which remains a “significant burden” for the health service but also “great progress”.

The number of people hospitalized is decreasing “quite rapidly”, according to the press conference. Daily admissions now averaged 89 per day compared to 150 per day a fortnight ago.

In the seven days to yesterday, an average of 1,700 new cases were confirmed daily, compared to 6,500 in early January.

Test positivity rates in public health labs have dropped from 27% at the peak to 9% as of yesterday. This is a “faster decline” than expected.

Professor Nolan cautioned that there is still a high volume of disease in people 65 and older. But he said they are making progress in all age groups.

It continues to be of concern to NPHET that infection rates are declining more slowly in those older than 75 years and, in particular, in those older than 85 years.

He said the close contacts of a confirmed case have dropped to around 2.1 and that is not increasing.

Dr Holohan said: “The incidence is decreasing but it is still high. It is positive to see the reduction in the number of people hospitalized and a stabilization of the number of people in the ICU.

“However, we continue to experience high mortality with 878 deaths so far in January. I am concerned about the high incidence that we are seeing in long-term care settings and vulnerable groups.

“Our efforts to stay home and stop the transmission of the disease will save lives. Please continue to follow public health advice and support each other to move forward.”

Counties with the highest 14-day Covid rate per 100,000 include Monaghan (1,373.3), Louth (908.6), and Carlow (874.7). Those with the lowest rates are Leitrim (246.5), Roscommon (294.4) and Kerry (322.3).

Examples of how outbreaks spread in communities

Dr Lorraine Doherty, Ireland’s National Health Protection Clinic Director, revealed how a meat plant in the west of Ireland had an outbreak with 83 related cases.

“One of these cases had a household contact who worked in a different meat plant where there was another outbreak with 76 cases; these two outbreaks in the workplace were linked by a household contact.”

The first outbreak, involving 83 people, led to seven family outbreaks in private homes with 17 additional cases, as well as other family outbreaks, one of which was related to a school outbreak.

In the second outbreak, with 76 cases, there were 19 family outbreaks linked to it with 35 additional cases, as well as two other community outbreaks.

“It only takes one event to trigger a chain of Covid-19 transmission that can spread through a community,” said Dr. Doherty. “Every action an individual performs matters.”

He also spoke of an outbreak at a construction site in the northwest of the country, involving 11 cases. One of them attended a funeral and this resulted in 14 additional cases. Other family outbreaks were also related to the original outbreak.

In the Midwest, there were 61 cases in a group of third-grade students. An infected student served as a waitress at a wedding at a local hotel and 16 more cases occurred.

Of the new Covid-19 cases reported today, 697 are men, 764 women, and 55% are under 45 years old.

There were 472 cases in Dublin, 106 in Galway, 103 in Cork, 77 in Waterford, 70 in Limerick and the remaining 638 cases are distributed in all other counties.

Also today, the HSE confirmed that seven residents have died with Covid-19 at West Kerry Community Hospital in recent weeks.

In its latest letter to the Government, NPHET said that it will be increasingly difficult to maintain the level of Covid-19 suppression that has been achieved since the New Year.

Visas revoked for 12 countries

Twelve countries have lost visa-free access to Ireland due to Covid-19 concerns after Justice Minister Helen McEntee signed a regulation last night.

Passengers arriving from South Africa and Brazil, as well as Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname and Uruguay, are affected.

The regulation went into effect at midnight in response to growing concerns about more contagious variants of Covid-19.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said that he hopes to join the list of countries where a mandatory 14-day quarantine will be applied for passengers arriving at Irish ports and airports.

He told a meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party last night that half of the arrivals at Dublin airport on Tuesday night came from holiday destinations – 397 out of 800 passengers.

He said the government is responding in multiple ways, from increasing fines for non-essential travel to more garda checkpoints at ports and airports.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar told a Fine Gael party meeting last night that he would not rule out any strategy to deal with the pandemic, and said it was possible that the European Union could even decide to ban travel to the EU.

The opposition DTs argue that the government is acting slowly.

Independent Thomas Pringle said that while people suffer from pandemic fatigue, they also feel that 2020 was a waste because the government learned no lessons.

Meanwhile, two test centers have been opened near Dublin Airport and on the outskirts of Gorey, Co Wexford to make it easier for commercial drivers to travel to France.

Today a new French requirement came into effect, requiring that people arriving in the country have proof of having received a negative test for Covid-19.

The Health Service Executive announced that Covid-19 antigen tests, performed in the public health system, can now be used to confirm infections.

This should allow for a significant increase in testing with shorter turnaround times and lower cost than the total reliance on PCR testing, which has been the case so far.

Additional reporting George Lee, Paul Cunningham



[ad_2]