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COVID-19 is running out of control and it must somehow stop in its tracks to avoid a catastrophe in the coming weeks.
The worst is yet to come, as thousands of people who are already infected after festive gatherings still do not know they have the virus. These people could be at risk of ending up in the hospital or, worse, needing an intensive care bed.
Urgent action is required, but will it be enough to slow the spread of the spread to even more dangerous levels?
Lighting the fire
On Christmas Eve, warning signs of the looming fire were already being signaled, with 922 newly diagnosed cases of Covid-19. Yesterday, that had skyrocketed to 4,962 cases. The projection is up to 6,000 cases a day or more, which is 15 times higher than at the end of November. It highlights the level to which the virus accelerates.
Mutant strain
The unknown driver is the fastest new strain of coronavirus and it is not yet clear how much has taken hold here. A small number of positive samples here suggests that it could represent up to 17% of the current prevalence. Although socialization has been the main source of fuel behind the spread, it is believed that the new strain can increase the reproduction rate of the virus by up to 0.7.
It appears to be more transmissible in a higher proportion of people under 20 years of age. UK scientists say it has caused epidemic growth in almost every area there. The reality is that we do not know the full extent of its impact in this country and there was a denial among some high-level scientists about its faster expanding power when it first came to light. It means that it is easier to contract, and while it is not more virulent at causing disease, it will leave someone who is vulnerable at risk of becoming seriously ill. The temporary ban on all passenger travel from Britain to the UK remains in effect.
Restrictions
The level 5 rules went into effect on December 30, which is still less than a week ago, and it will take time before the deceleration effect of the spread is observed. The message from Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan in the last days of staying home echoes the battle cry of the first lockdown.
However, the big dilemma now is whether the current restrictions should be further tightened. The impact of the new strain among younger age groups, the ability of the screening and tracking system to deliver results, and the potential for widespread absenteeism among teachers will contribute to this decision.
The focus is on whether schools should reopen next week. But there are crucial decisions about whether to allow construction works to continue and whether the 5km limit from home should be shortened. The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) meets at the end of this week and will assess the stage of the crisis.
Hospitals
The number of Covid-19 patients in the hospital has reached a new high of 744, down from 673. The number of patients in intensive care has risen to 65. Hospitals are again struggling to cope. One of the most dangerous impacts of this will be on patients with serious and life-threatening illnesses who do not have Covid-19.
Private hospitals can provide some kind of safety valve, but it is disappointing that even at this point, a deal has not been made with them to take over some of the work for public hospitals. One of the characteristics of the early part of the pandemic was the ability to treat all Covid-19 patients who needed the highest level of intensive care support. The reduction in deaths is attributed to this.
The great fear now is that this is not possible in the third wave. Around 3,000 employees are currently out due to illness or close contact, leading to major complications as hospitals come under increased pressure.
Vaccinations
The rapid implementation of the vaccine will be crucial to protect those most exposed to the virus. Although a nursing home schedule for administration of the vaccine was drawn up starting this week, problems were already reported today.
Vaccine supply will not keep up with demand as the spread of the virus continues to increase. It is also complicated by the need to ensure that everyone receives two doses. The UK has decided to extend the period of weeks between the first and second doses and this is being discussed here. It would mean that more people could take advantage of a first dose earlier, which could provide limited protection.
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