Met Eireann issues update as rare event that caused Beast from the East in 2018 to be expected again

Met Eireann expects a sudden stratospheric warming event in the next few days, the same event that caused the Beast from the East in 2018.

An SSW event “refers to the reversal of zonal winds in the stratosphere from west to east, coupled with a rapid jump in temperatures in the winter polar stratosphere leading to a complete breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex.”

Storm Emma and the Beast from the East, which generated a red status warning in 2018, came from this weather event, but there is no guarantee that this will happen again.

Met Eireann forecaster Paul Moore said: “Every SSW is different and less than half of them lead to colder conditions in Ireland. For example, the SSW in February 2018 led to the ‘Beast from the East’ and Storm Emma, ​​while SSW in January 2019 did not have a significant impact here, because easterly winds did not propagate into the troposphere from the stratosphere. “

The forecaster added: “It is unclear how this will affect our climate in the coming weeks as we are already in a very locked configuration.

“It could drive momentum out of the west in our region, at least temporarily, as the SPV pushes over Scandinavia, leading to a strengthening of the North Atlantic jet stream, resulting in a more winter weather pattern. typical of Ireland.

“It could also prolong and intensify the blocked high-latitude configuration that leads to cold polar air masses flooding south to north Europe or other mid-latitudes.”

Alan O’Reilly of Carlow Weather said last week: “A sudden stratospheric warming event seems more likely now. As usual, the impact this will have on our climate remains to be seen.”

But the forecaster added on Saturday: “It is worth noting that most of the SSW events did NOT result in a cold snap for us and some of the colder winter events occurred WITHOUT SSW.”