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Snow conditions in 2018.
Source: Eamonn Farrell / RollingNews.ie
MODELING SUGGESTS THE same weather event responsible for the 2018 cold snap will occur again in the next few days, but it is not yet guaranteed to be an extreme weather event in Ireland.
Nor will it bring any instant change to our climate. The impact, if any, may take some time to become apparent.
A combination of the Beast from the East and Storm Emma in late February 2018 caused chilly easterly winds and widespread snow across Ireland, prompting Met Éireann to issue a Red State weather advisory for the entire country.
Temperatures close to -10 degrees Celsius and snow depths of more than 60 cm were recorded in some areas when the two weather events were combined.
Heavy snowfall at Kilteel in 2018.
Source: Eamonn Farrell / RollingNews.ie
However, an event known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) took place in the weeks leading up to this in early February 2018.
This is where the stratosphere layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, located 10 to 50 km above the planet’s surface, undergoes, as the name suggests, a sudden warming.
The same thing happened before The Big Freeze in 2010.
O’Connell Street during The Big Freeze in 2010.
Source: Sasko Lazarov / RollingNews.ie
Analysis of the 2018 cold snap by Met Éireann found that SSW ‘led directly’ to cold weather at the end of the month.
Others have made similar findings. Research from the University of Reading described SSW as the “trigger” for the Beast from the East.
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Met Éireann’s climate unit tweeted last night that there is now a ‘model agreement’, meaning multiple weather model calculations made the same prediction, for a major SSW event over the next week.
While the forecaster has shared this modeling prediction, it is too early to appear in any formal forecast. The outlook is that cold conditions, with daytime temperatures struggling to break above freezing and possible longer periods of sleet and snow, are expected to continue into at least next weekend.
Speaking to The Telegraph, Grahame Madge of the UK Met Office said the long-term outlook is still unclear.
“Two out of three SSW events result in very cold episodes, but one in three has little impact,” he said.
Carlow Weather’s Alan O’Reilly highlighted a similar trend: SSW is not always equal to cold weather for Ireland, and extreme cold weather is not always preceded by SSW.
Yesterday he told The Hard Shoulder in Newstalk that it could be the end of the month before any potential shock is felt.
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