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The sound of whispers emanates from businesses across the country tonight as they unwrap an anticipated Christmas present.
After four years of debating, talking, arguing, worrying, planning and preparing, a trade deal was finally reached between the EU and the UK, softening Britain’s exit from the union.
It brings with it the one thing businesses crave, especially right now: certainty.
The tariff- and quota-free deal will significantly ease the concerns of those who trade with the UK.
A no-deal would have hurt many of the more than 13 billion euros of Irish exports to the UK each year, making those products less or unattractive to British consumers.
Up to € 1.7 billion in taxes or duties would have been applied to the import of these products upon arrival on British soil, with the agri-food sector particularly affected, since 38% of that category of exports from Ireland end up in the United Kingdom.
Average tariffs on beef would have been 74%, for example, while cheddar cheese, half of which is produced here is destined for the British market, would have been hit with a 52% tariff.
Those who import from GB will also breathe a sigh of relief.
Tariffs on those goods would have inflated costs and, by extension, prices, making the goods less competitive in the Irish market, reducing participation, or forcing manufacturers or retailers to source them from elsewhere.
Overall, the Irish national economy and finances should be in better shape next year as a result. God knows we need them.
The deal should also mean that the roller coaster that sterling has been through in recent years should end, making life much easier for Irish exporters.
Equity markets listed in Irish and UK listed companies will also enjoy a breather.
Despite the market setting a price on a Brexit deal in recent days, the general calm and predictability will spill oil into troubled waters as traders digest the reality that the Irish and UK economies are not. they will look as damaged as they could have been in a no. -Situation of the deal.
Of course, the devil will be in the details of the 2,000-page trade deal, and many in business will now read the pages over the Christmas holidays to see exactly what it means to them.
Certainly not everyone will be happy with its content and, as with all successful negotiations, there will be both winners and losers.
There will be little for them to be happy about.
Despite all the pantomimes of will, right? Most businessmen expected an agreement to be reached, as it was the most pragmatic solution for all concerned.
The need for a resolution has become even more acute in recent months, due to the severity of the economic impact of Covid-19 across Europe.
Indeed, in recent days pressure has built up on British Prime Minister Boris Johnson as the threat of the new strain of the virus grew in the UK and beyond.
Given that stark reality, it would have been a massive political failure on both sides if an agreement had not been reached, and one that would have stuck in the minds of many business owners and their staff for a long time.
However, there will be a great collective sigh of relief that an agreement has been reached.
But while it is an early Christmas gift for Irish businesses, it is one of those gifts that they need rather than want.
Very few if any in Irish business life wanted Brexit to happen.
Apart from a small enough inflow of foreign direct investment and an incentive to seek new markets, most Irish companies have little to gain from the UK’s exit from the EU, especially without a trade deal.
So even if economic disaster has been averted, there will be relief, not joy at what has happened.
Companies here have already incurred significant costs preparing for all possible scenarios and will not recover.
Huge amounts of time, thought, and stress have gone into preparing.
Business owners will be justifiably bitter for having come to this.
And although there is now a trade agreement, it does not mean that everything is fine.
Regardless, new costs and administration will be required on January 1.
Customs declarations and other forms will still have to be completed, controls carried out, labeling changed, and comply with the new regulations.
Queues are expected at ports across the UK, like the ones we’ve seen in recent days caused by measures to stop the spread of Covid-19, which gave a timely idea of what may happen.
The UK land bridge, used by 150,000 Irish trucks a year to transport goods to and from Ireland, may no longer be viable.
Survey after survey in the last year has shown that despite all the advice and information, many companies are still not as ready for that immutable aspect of Brexit as they should be.
And so, while a Brexit nightmare before Christmas could have been avoided, few in business here will raise a glass to the situation, be it tonight or on New Year’s Eve.
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