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Northern Ireland’s scientific director has said it will be very difficult to keep schools open if the new variant of Covid-19 becomes dominant there.
The first positive case of the new strain in Northern Ireland was confirmed yesterday.
“If variant were the dominant form in Northern Ireland, then it is highly unlikely that we could keep the R to less than 1 and schools open,” Professor Ian Young told BBC Radio Ulster’s Stephen Nolan program.
He said he does not believe the variant is currently a “major form” in Northern Ireland, but said he is confident that there are a small number of cases.
The Stormont Executive issued guidance earlier this week in response to the emergence of the variant, recommending no non-essential travel between Northern Ireland and Britain and south of the border.
The executive also agreed to advise anyone arriving in Northern Ireland who stays for more than 24 hours to isolate themselves for 10 days. Applies to anyone who has arrived since December 22.
“This particular variant appears to be significantly different from many of the others that have been in circulation, it has a number of different mutations or changes in its genetic material that affect the structure of some of the key parts of the virus.”
“As a result, the virus is very likely to be transmitted more easily than the form of the virus we are used to, 40% to 70% more easily,” he said.
“We do not believe it will cause a more serious disease … and we are reasonably confident that it will continue to respond to the vaccine and that the vaccine will protect against this variant.”
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Professor Young said he is “very concerned” about the new variant of the virus because it is more easily transmitted.
“The impact of that, if it were to be set in Northern Ireland, for example, by the time R is probably between 1 and 1.2, and if we had the variant form and we all behaved the same, R would be closer to 1.6 and 1.8, and that would have serious consequences, “he said.
He said there would likely be stronger restrictions for longer if the variant form of the virus became the dominant strain.
Meanwhile, Northern Ireland will enter a new lockdown on St. Stephen’s Day, of which the first week will be the harshest ever imposed in the region.
There will be a curfew to stay home from 8 pm to 6 am during that week.
Professor Young urged the public to adhere to the restrictions.
“At the moment, I think it is only circulating in fairly small quantities, and what we can do to prevent it from becoming the dominant strain is for everyone in the next six weeks to strictly adhere to the mitigations and restrictions in place,” he added. he said.
“That gives us the best chance of preventing this variant from establishing itself until vaccination begins to have a significant effect on our population.”
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