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The government has been told to institute a six-week Level 5 lockdown starting on St. Stephen’s Day, as public health officials said the data indicates that a new variant first detected in the UK of Covid -19 is present in Ireland.
Such a measure, which would take effect at midnight, would imply the closure of non-essential retail trade, which the government decided to keep open earlier this week. At level 5, home visits are also prohibited.
Amid growing concern about the new variant and the level of disease in the state, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) warned on Wednesday that, as the country enters the Christmas period, it is “being very hit by rapid escalation and fast transmission viruses ”.
Health Minister Stephen Donnelly said the situation was “very worrying.” He told The Irish Times that the newer variants of the virus from South Africa and the United Kingdom, combined with a rapid increase in infection rates in all age groups, mean that “it is the most serious situation since I took office. Health Minister”.
All forms of discretionary socialization really have to stop if we are to have a chance to suppress this kind of level of transmission.
He said people should be “very cautious” and “think very carefully” about meeting vulnerable family members at Christmas, especially if they have been socializing.
In a letter sent to Mr. Donnelly Wednesday night, Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan warned of serious concerns about protecting the healthcare system.
‘Greater impact’
Earlier, HSE CEO Paul Reid said the country is facing “very serious and dangerous” levels of Covid-19 infection, which threatens to have a “great impact” on the hospital system.
Dr Cillian De Gascun, chair of the Covid-19 expert advisory group, said monitoring of samples taken last weekend suggested that the UK variant may be present in about 10 percent of swabs. analyzed.
However, Dr Holohan said that the increase in cases cannot be attributed to the presence in Ireland of the new variant, which according to early studies is more infectious. He said that since the restrictions were modified at the beginning of December, “the level of social contact that has occurred, in particular around the hotel business, has caused a very significant increase in the transmission of this infection.”
Dr. Holohan said that “all forms of discretionary socialization really have to stop if we are to have the opportunity to suppress this kind of level of transmission.” He said there was a “clear temporal association” between the opening of hospitality and a very significant increase in the spread of the disease.
The chairman of Nphet’s epidemiological advisory group, Professor Philip Nolan, said the relaxation on December 1 led to an increase in cases, but that the relaxation of restrictions on hospitality “coincides with a very rapid acceleration in the level of disease. “.
The R number, an estimate of how fast the virus moves through the population, is currently estimated to be between 1.5 and 1.8, said Professor Nolan. If it could be reduced to 1.4, there would be 1,100 cases per day by January 4 and 1,600 by January 18. If it could be forced to 1.1, those numbers would be 1,000 and 1,200 respectively, but even if it was lowered to 1.0, he said the case numbers of around 1,000 per day would continue.
Insufficient
Professor Nolan said that he did not believe that the current measures were sufficient to reduce the number below 1. “Given the nature of the measures and our experience to date, I am not sure they are sufficient on their own, particularly given where we are starting from. “
There is deep and grave concern among high-level government sources about the potential impact of the variant, despite Nphet’s view that it has not yet substantially driven the infection here. While the government is eager to protect schools, the economy and other essential services, high-level sources fear that March-style restrictions should be examined in the New Year.
When asked about the reopening of the schools in January, Dr. Holohan said that “we are not raising any issues in this regard at this time.” However, citing the prior shutdown of medical care and the impact on nursing homes, he warned that high levels of community transmission “pose a risk to all things that happen in society.”
In Northern Ireland, the first case of the new variant of the coronavirus was confirmed Wednesday night.
The Northern Health Department said its analysis indicated that the variant was likely to have been present in Northern Ireland “for a period of time.”
“This new variant had been detected in increasing numbers in south-east England. It is increasingly likely that it will also establish itself in other regions of the UK and in the Republic of Ireland, ”the department said in a statement.
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