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The country faces “very serious and dangerous” levels of spread of Covid-19, which threatens to have a “great impact” on the hospital system, said the chief of the Health Services Executive (HSE).
Paul Reid, HSE executive director, said health officials were now as concerned as they had been at the start of the pandemic in March.
There were fears that the increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations coincided with the traditionally busy period in hospitals in early January, he said.
The situation was “extremely volatile” at present and could deteriorate very quickly, as happened in Northern Ireland, where hospitals were “overwhelmed” over several days, Reid said at an HSE news conference on Wednesday.
HSE Clinical Director Dr. Colm Henry said that the past few days had seen “an extraordinary growth in infection beyond what our extreme versions of models would have predicted.”
“We are deteriorating at a faster rate, in seven days, than any other country in Europe,” he said. The speed at which the virus spreads has reached a “frightening level,” he said.
“The impact of this, if it continues on its current trajectory, will be felt throughout the healthcare system. . . We know the destructive effect that Covid-19 has, particularly in healthcare settings, including acute care hospitals, ”said Dr. Henry.
‘Worst of cases’
If the country began to see close to 2,000 new Covid-19 cases a day, as predicted by the New Year, Reid warned that the healthcare system would come under intense strain.
“We would start to see very significant hospitalizations, we hope, very significant increases in the ICU, and also a lot of pressure on our testing and tracking capacity,” he said.
There would normally be a delay of about two weeks between a large number of confirmed cases and an increase in hospital admissions, Reid said.
Health officials are concerned about a possible “worst case scenario” that could lead to significant admissions of Covid-19 patients in early January, a time when the hospital system traditionally comes under pressure every year.
“It’s at a point where the entire healthcare system has the potential to be overwhelmed, which we’ve seen happen not too far away in Northern Ireland,” Reid said.
Given the higher rates of the virus now within the community and the expected increase in socialization between households during Christmas, there was a “high risk” that healthcare workers would contract Covid-19 outside of work, Reid said.
This would mean that hospitals would face staffing pressures at the same time as an increase in demand for services in early January, he said.
Mr. Reid said he was confident that the State could reach an agreement for additional capacity with private hospitals again if necessary. “In terms of the massive increase that we may have, there are still discussions between department officials, the HSE, and private hospital groups,” he said.
Extra supports
Anne O’Connor, HSE’s director of operations, said additional supports were being provided to 136 long-term residential care facilities, such as nursing homes.
Eighteen facilities faced outbreak-related amber-category pressures under HSE’s traffic light warning system, it said.
Seven nursing homes were in the red category, “where there is a significant risk to the continued operation of the center,” Ms O’Connor said.
The first delivery of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine will see 9,750 doses arrive in Ireland on St. Stephen’s Day, and another 31,000 doses will be received shortly after, Reid said.
The state expects to receive about 40,000 doses of the vaccine each week in January and February, and the initial rollout focused on vaccinating vulnerable residents in nursing homes and some healthcare staff, he said.
Meanwhile, nurses have been told that a small number of staff in hospitals can receive the Covid vaccine before the end of December.
In a vignette addressed to members on Wednesday, the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organization (INMO) said: “Health workers will be among the first to receive the vaccine. Deployment to long-term care facilities (public and private) is likely to take place in January and February, including staff and patients. A small batch of vaccines can also be used in some acute care hospitals later this year. “
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