Everything agrees for the most part, except the fish. Christmas is as good for Brexit negotiators as it is for anyone else.
Or, while there is a fear that this will still drag on during the seasonal festivities, there is hope that something akin to a deal could be dragged down the line as soon as tonight.
But any divorce deal between the EU and the UK will be limited and provisionally implemented from January, with ratification in the European Parliament and member states in the spring.
That’s much better than a no-deal exit, but there will be gaps and problems. The lines of trucks around Dover this week, due to Covid-19, gave us a preview of what can happen from New Year’s Day.
Here’s a quick rundown of the situation through some key questions.
Q. Remind me again, where are we?
A. The UK finally left the EU politically last January and is due to leave the bloc for commercial reasons on December 31st. For the past eight months, Brussels and London have been trying to reach a free trade agreement to replace the UK membership. It’s a big deal for Ireland, which sells products worth € 5 billion to the UK every year. The key sticking points were the same for months: fair competition without undercutting the rules on state aid to businesses; labor and environmental law and a credible means of resolving future disputes; and the access of EU fishing vessels to UK waters after Brexit.
Q. Is it just fish now?
A. They patched up some fairly flexible agreements on the other issues. And there is no guarantee that these issues will not change this complicated process again. But fish, despite being economically small for both sides, is the big lock right now. Brexiters spoke of it as “regaining control of our seas.” Ireland is among the eight EU coastal states, led by France, fighting for continued access to UK waters, which give Irish vessels a third of the value of their annual catch. The fishing lobby is on the path of war and has a political impact on all sides.
Q. What is the real fish problem?
A. Both parties have privately conceded that they were “on another planet” given the large gap in the offers that were being made. The last offer from the EU was that they would give up 25% of the annual value of what their ships currently take. The UK demanded a 35% concession, but that’s further than just 10%. The fishing rules are complex and the details showed that once shallow waters, or so-called “pelagic” fish, were taken into account, the total EU loss would be 60%. There were also discussions on how to deal with Spanish and Dutch ships registered in Great Britain. There are big disputes over when the new UK water access rules would take effect and how long before changes to a stricter regime.
Q. So are you making this deal or what?
A. It depends on who you ask and when. But chances are they will do something like a deal, and maybe even tonight. The tough ‘don’t back down’ talk continues periodically, as it has since Brexit exploded in in June 2016. There are rumors in London around a deal with MPs waiting to return to the UK Parliament next Monday and Tuesday and seal a possible deal. A London tabloid reported that the RAF was on standby to bring UK negotiators home from Brussels. Agree or disagree: the war rhetoric of British schoolchildren persists.