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Michel Barnier and David Frost are giving their negotiations what Barnier called “a final push,” while Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen are in regular contact in an effort to reach an agreement. But with the two sides still distant on fishing and other issues still unresolved, it is now unlikely that they will reach an agreement before Christmas.
Barnier told EU ambassadors on Tuesday that Britain’s latest fish supply is less generous than it appears and that his proposal that European vessels slaughter 25 percent of their catch in British waters over seven years is definitive. Britain’s proposal that the EU give up 30 to 35 percent over five years does not include pelagic fish such as herring, mackerel and whiting, so it is effectively a demand for European vessels to slaughter 60 percent of the value of what they catch in British waters.
Britain is also seeking to relax its level playing field commitments on fair competition, to make them less restrictive, less binding and less subject to a dispute resolution mechanism.
Given that coastal states led by France and Denmark are sticking with fishing and rejecting what Britain sees as a generous offer, the gap is likely too big to bridge Wednesday night, the timeframe member states have given for That an agreement is reached on time will take effect on January 1.
It is too late for the European Parliament to ratify a deal before the end of the year, although MPs would return to Westminster to endorse it on December 30. If the European Council agrees on December 31 to apply the agreement provisionally pending approval by MEPs, that application would probably not come into force until a week later.
Pause hope
A crisis in talks on Wednesday followed by a brief hiatus over Christmas could offer Johnson three advantages: There is a chance he will get a slightly better deal after Christmas; it will have shown Brexit supporters its willingness to go all the way; and a late deal would give their own MPs less time to consider the details of a deal.
Such a crisis could also see Von der Leyen and other EU leaders pressure coastal states to commit to fish for the overall value of a trade deal and in view of the risk of a bitter fight with Britain in the event. of no deal.
But there are risks for Johnson in resisting, and any deal he can get after Christmas is unlikely to be much better than the current EU offer: maybe 28% of the fish for six years instead of 25% for seven. And if coastal states refuse to give in, other member states are likely to show them the same solidarity that they showed with Ireland in the first stage of Brexit negotiations, siding with their partners within the EU against a third country outside. her.
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