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Would Boris Johnson really walk away from a free trade agreement with the European Union over a dispute over fish? At first glance, and in view of the small part of the British economy that fishing represents, the question is absurd.
But as the negotiations move towards their next crisis and the latest deadline approaches Sunday, those close to the prime minister believe he is serious when he says he cannot accept a deal that does not result in a clear victory for British fishermen.
A no-deal outcome would be disastrous for a fishing industry that would lose duty-free access to its largest market. But Downing Street considers the EU’s proposal for an 18 per cent reduction in its share of fish in British waters with a transition period of eight years to be laughable.
Michel Barnier met with representatives of the EU coastal states twice on Friday before returning to the negotiating table with David Frost on Friday afternoon. Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen are expected to speak again over the weekend to assess how much progress has been made since their call Thursday night.
Johnson hopes that the EU will agree to shorten the transition period or increase the size of the quota to be returned to Britain. And he’s determined that any retaliatory tariffs imposed by the EU if Britain chooses to limit access to its waters in the future is limited to fishing.
Coastal states and agreements
Britain’s fishing fleets were unable to take advantage of a dramatic and immediate increase in their quota and the three-year transition Johnson is offering is almost certainly too short for them. But unlike the details of the level playing field arbitration panels, access to British fishing waters is an issue that most people think they understand.
The stakes are so high that Johnson is unlikely to go for a fisheries-only deal, but the issue is politically important enough to delay the deal in hopes of getting more concessions. Britain’s hopes rest in part on coastal states with an overwhelming interest in avoiding a deal, such as Ireland, that they sacrifice part of their fishing quota to allow the French to retain more, and that the EU is prepared to subsidize the fishing communities losing out.
Such a chain of events could require a new crisis in the talks, pushing the European Parliament deadline of Sunday night and continuing the negotiations until Christmas. A deal agreed as late as Christmas Eve would allow parliamentarians to be removed on Monday, December 28, to push through the necessary legislation in a single day.
It would then be up to the European Commission and the EU member states to determine how to deal with the European Parliament.
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