NPHET Expert Gives Grim Prediction On Covid Cases In January As New Restrictions Approach

Ireland could see between 700 and 1,200 confirmed Covid cases each day in January if current trends continue, NPHET warned.

Professor Philip Nolan said Ireland’s R-number has now risen to between 1.1 and 1.3 compared to 0.9 to 1 last week.

And Professor Nolan added that the country could see more than 1,000 cases a day in the new year as cases continue to rise.

Prof Nolan, who is the head of the “The number of reproduction is now estimated between 1.1 -1.3. We are concerned that Ireland is now in a phase of rapid growth, which if allowed to continue, will result in 700 – 1200 cases per day by the second week of January, if not earlier.

“We are particularly concerned about the elderly and vulnerable adults, who have protected themselves during the second wave and are now at risk during the holiday season.”

It comes when the country is likely to face more restrictions before the new year.

It was originally planned that any additional restrictions that might be necessary would be re-implemented on January 6, however, Taoiseach Micheal Martin has since noted that it will likely be sooner.

Mr. Martin told RTE News that the government will take these recommendations “very seriously” and said that people can expect more restrictions “towards the end of the year, I think before New Year’s Eve is how I would put it.”

However, he said the government will make a decision on Tuesday on what exact restrictions will be reintroduced “and the specific nature of the restrictions will have to be decided by the government.”

Meanwhile, Tanaiste Leo Varadkar said a decision will be made on the series of measures to be introduced after Christmas on Tuesday.

The Fine Gael leader, who denied that it was indeed a Level 5 lockdown, said that recent ‘alarming’ figures from RTE’s Prime Time had meant a change was necessary.

He said: “The difficulty is that the numbers have started to rise again, particularly in the last few days.

“So what NHPET is recommending is that we would re-impose some restrictions between Christmas and New Years, without going until January 6, which is what we expected.

Mr Varadkar, who agreed that companies needed certainty, added: “As the Taoiseach previously stated about the kind of restrictions we would be thinking of imposing sometime between Christmas and New Years they would be restrictions on hospitality, essentially closing hospitality again and limiting home to home visits, but not a total ban on home visiting.

“But, for example, personal and retail services will remain open, [non-essential retail] will remain open.

“But what will happen, on Tuesday the Cabinet will meet and we will be able to read and consider the advice of NHPET, advice from other organizations as well because we would like to hear the advice of other organizations as well and also have four more days of numbers.

“That’s because there is a possibility, nothing is inevitable, there is a possibility that the figures will stabilize in the coming days.

“It is not likely, but it is possible.”

Mr. Varadkar also stressed that swift action was required because if they waited until January to impose additional measures, the restrictions “could be tougher and last longer.”