‘My instinct is it’s 50-50,’ Martin says of Brexit

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Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said that his “instinct” is that he is 50-50 as to whether a trade deal between the European Union and the UK will be reached in the next few days.

“My feeling is that we are at a very difficult juncture and I think it is important that the resumed talks use all the creativity they can on the part of the participants to try to obtain a resolution, because I think that a ‘no deal’ would be very harmful to all stakeholders: to the Irish economy and indeed also to the economies of the member states, so it is very, very important that common sense prevails here and that an agreement is reached, “Martin said tonight.

The Taoiseach was speaking to RTÉ News at Marymount Hospice in Cork, where he formally turned on the Christmas lights.

Negotiators from the EU and UK are preparing to resume talks on a “future relationship” and a trade deal.

“The situation is serious and obviously the three issues that have been very difficult to reconcile throughout the talks have yet to be addressed,” Martin said, “namely, a level playing field, which is proving particularly difficult, fishing and of course a dispute resolution mechanism to address the level playing field issue. “

A level playing field refers to whether there will be tariffs and quotas on goods leaving or entering the UK, making it more or less difficult for exporters to that country.

The Taoiseach said that as talks continue, “I think the message to the Irish people and Irish businesses in particular is to be very vigilant now and very vigilant in your Brexit preparations, double down, make sure, check again that everyone of Your preparations are in place because even with a closed deal it will be challenging in terms of the changes that will occur and the additional documentation. In case there is no deal, it will be significantly onerous for the companies, so things are in the edge of a knife here and it’s serious. “

When asked if his instinct is that there will be a deal, or not, he replied, “My instinct is that it’s 50-50 right now and I don’t think one can be too optimistic about an emerging resolution.

“My feeling is, and I’ve talked to some of the top directors here, this is a very difficult issue to resolve, particularly on the level playing field.”

He said “he will not set deadlines” to reach a final agreement.

“The important dimension here is to reach an agreement and make sure that it is an agreement that works in the medium and long term because a good and sustainable relationship between the UK and the European Union is what makes sense for the medium term, so So if it takes a couple more days to figure this out, it’s better to do it than rush things. “

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Foreign Minister Simon Coveney previously said that the consequences of a no-deal situation between the UK and the EU are “so great” that both sides “will find a way” to reach the necessary compromises.

Speaking to RTÉ News this afternoon, Coveney said the hope is that an agreement will be reached this week “to provide the certainty that everyone yearns for” so they can plan ahead and avoid the “disruption, division and acrimony” of a failure. . agreement.

However, he said that the negotiations are in “a very difficult place” after the suspension of the talks in recent days and the conversation last night between the president of the European Commission and the British prime minister.

“Significant differences remain on three critical issues: a level playing field, governance and fisheries,” Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson said in a joint statement yesterday.

They commissioned their main negotiators, Michel Barnier and David Frost, to meet today in Brussels. Mr Coveney will travel to the city tonight for a meeting of EU foreign ministers.

Speaking to RTÉ News this afternoon in Cork prior to his departure, the minister said that while he still believes a deal is more likely than not, “nothing would surprise or surprise me” when it comes to Brexit.

He said that any move by the UK government to pass a tax bill later this week that would violate the withdrawal agreement “would be extremely detrimental to the prospects of reaching a deal.” However, he added: “I think we should focus less on the threats and more on the detail of how we reach an agreement.”

Mr Coveney said it makes no political, economic or social sense that there is no “future relationship” agreement between Britain and the EU.

“Not having a future structured relationship agreement will be very, very costly and very, very disruptive for the UK and Ireland.”

He added: “I think the negotiating teams and high-level politicians will find a way to reach an agreement, but at the moment we are in a difficult place as we try to close it.”

Mr. Coveney called on all parties to “avoid divisive and emotional language” as they try to find “a compromise that we can both live with.”

When asked whether there would be a deal or not, he replied: “I have said for some time that we are more likely to get a deal than not, but nothing would surprise or surprise me about Brexit.

“So we have to be prepared for either outcome as a country. That is why the Government is really working around the clock to try to prepare Ireland for the prospects of no trade deal.”

“But I’m still hopeful that an agreement can be reached.”

The minister said that the key issues remain fishing and a “level playing field” that would avoid the need for tariffs and quotas.

Negotiators from the EU and UK are resuming talks in Brussels this afternoon on a post-Brexit relationship governing trade and other areas.

David Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator, and his team arrived in Brussels on Eurostar today.

“We will work very hard to try to reach an agreement,” he told reporters. “We look forward to meeting our European colleagues this afternoon.”

Both parties have until tomorrow night, effectively, to try to work through stubborn and fundamental differences about the nature of their future relationship.

The Minister for Higher and Continuing Education, Simon Harris, said this afternoon that he believes there is a Brexit deal to be done if there is the will of both parties.

Speaking on RTÉ’s The Week on Politics, he said that the fact that Ms. Von der Leyen and Mr. Johnson have ordered negotiators to keep talking is a good sign.

On the same program, former EU ambassador to the United States David O’Sullivan said that tomorrow is the vital day, as the talks reach a critical stage.

He also said there would be a lot of disruptions on January 1, whether there is a deal or not, but a deal would make the end of the transition period less disruptive and remove fees.

Sinn Féin TD Eoin Ó Broin said it was a last chance salon. He said the costs of a deal would be substantial, but Ireland would not be able to cope with a deal.

Independent TD Marian Harkin said the talks were at the theatrical stage, but that she believed a deal would be reached on a possible compromise on fisheries.

People Before Profits TD Richard Boyd Barrett said there was risk and there would probably be a deal, but that wasn’t certain as he said Johnson didn’t behave rationally.

Gavin Barwell, who was former British Prime Minister Theresa May’s chief of staff, said he believes a deal is “definitely still possible”, though it will depend on whether both sides are “ready to make the necessary compromises.”

Barwell told BBC Breakfast: “Both parties are going to have to compromise if we are to come to an agreement.”

Britain is prepared to continue negotiating with the EU until it no longer makes sense to do so, UK agriculture minister George Eustice said today, adding that the country was ready for a no-deal scenario.

David Frost arriving at St Pancras station in London this morning for his trip to Brussels

“In fact, we have been working a lot on this for a long period of time,” he told Sky News.

“We had made a lot of preparations to go without a deal last October and since then we have been preparing for the possibility of having to go without a deal at the end of this year.

“We will be ready to do it if that is what happens.”

Eustice later told the BBC that if more time is needed for technical corrections, it can be found, but for fundamental issues “things must be decided in the next few days.”

Additional information: Tony Connelly, PA, Reuters



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