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For almost a week, the British and European Union negotiating teams have been meeting in the anonymous offices of the British commercial department near Victoria Station. A handful of photographers huddle outside waiting for a sign of life, but there’s little back and forth beyond a few late-night pizza deliveries.
The negotiating teams led by Michel Barnier and David Frost have revealed little about the progress of the talks, which has led to wild and conflicting speculation about what is happening. Sources close to each team have different tones, and the EU side is generally more wary of the prospect of an imminent breakthrough.
Both parties agree, however, that significant progress has been made in ensuring fair competition on the “level playing field” and there has been some progress in governance. And everyone agrees that the most difficult issue and probably the last to be resolved is fishing.
All things being equal, Britain has accepted an architecture that would see an independent regulator limit the British government’s scope to subsidize businesses. The regulator would be British and although the parameters of the state aid policy would be set in the free trade agreement, it would not be subject to any European authority such as the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ).
Gambit
On other level playing field issues, such as employment and environmental standards, Britain appears to have accepted a version of the EU-proposed ratchet that would see the baseline for agreed standards increase if one party improves its safeguards. The two sides have yet to agree on how these issues and others should be enforced in the deal, and the EU demands the harshest consequences for any British pushback.
Boris Johnson’s silly tactic of introducing a domestic market bill that threatens to violate the withdrawal agreement has increased the cost to Britain of a free trade agreement in terms of governance. But his record of recklessness could prove useful in parliament if he signs a deal that would give Britain the freedom to move further away from the EU, but with catastrophic consequences.
Unlike other prime ministers, Johnson would have little difficulty persuading Brexit supporters that he is willing to choose the nuclear option. From extending parliament to removing the whip from top Tory MPs to introducing treaty-breaking legislation, he has done so many times since he became prime minister.
Johnson can afford to make some last-minute compromises on a level playing field and governance, mostly because few people understand them. Fishing is a different matter.
The Vote Leave campaign promised to regain control of Britain’s borders, money and laws, but many Brexit voters see the restoration of sovereignty over British fishing waters as a measure of whether the country is actually getting out of control. European.
Under the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), all territorial waters of EU member states, or exclusive economic zones (EEZ), are managed as a common resource called EU waters. Each year, the EU determines a total allowable catch for each fish population, a species caught in a particular part of the sea, giving each member state a fixed part of each population.
Political power
The EU’s initial position in the negotiations was that nothing should change much after Brexit, while Britain said it must control its 200km waters and will negotiate with the EU every year to what extent European vessels could fish there. Both parties have moved from those positions, but Johnson can’t afford to strike a deal that doesn’t give British fishermen a big boost while asserting British sovereignty.
Much of the British fishing industry is concentrated in the northeast of England and Scotland, making it politically potent for conservatives. The Northeast is an essential part of Johnson’s new constituency and fishing could play an important role in the Scottish independence debate for years to come.
If it ensures much greater access to fishing waters for Scottish fishermen, Johnson will be able to argue that the Scottish National Party (SNP) promise to bring an independent Scotland to the EU will doom them to return to lower quotas under the CFP.
If Johnson can reach a deal with the EU that includes a clear win in fisheries, he is confident that all but a handful of conservative advocates will support him. Labor leader Keir Starmer is also preparing to support a deal, giving the prime minister an additional cushion.
If there is a deal early next week, Johnson can put off restoring the treaty breach clauses removed by the House of Lords from the domestic market bill. And his threat to include clauses in a tax bill next week to allow British ministers to unilaterally decide which goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland are at risk of entering the EU single market and subject to Tariffs would become moot if there is a deal. guarantee duty-free trade with the EU.
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