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The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has warned the government that Ireland is in a “precarious position” and that a looming third wave of Covid-19 could be more deadly than the previous one.
Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan has written to the Government warning that even in optimistic scenarios, the likely level of the virus in January 2021 “will present a real and substantial threat to the continued protection of public health and the most vulnerable. , the protection of health and social assistance services and the protection of our schools and educational system. “
As the Irish Times reports, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) modeled a series of scenarios that would see at least 400 cases per day in January and possibly earlier.
“If we start with higher case numbers in early December, this threshold will be exceeded sooner.”
The letter was sent Thursday after a meeting this week from Nphet and before a government decision Friday night to move the country from Level 5 coronavirus restrictions next week to Level 3 restrictions with some modifications. .
Third wave
The team warned the government that “if restrictions are now eased to a similar degree but more quickly than in the summer, due to a stronger base infection force, a third wave of illnesses will occur in winter and over the Christmas period. much faster and higher mortality than the second “.
They said the situation remained “fragile”.
“Al Nphet is concerned that the trajectory of the disease may change again quite quickly.”
The government was also told that there is “a persistent and late incidence in healthcare workers and notifications of outbreaks in the healthcare setting and that the number of confirmed cases in hospitals, intensive care and deaths from Covid-19 is not decreasing, which raises significant concern. “
They also said that the incidence in older people remains high.
The team also expressed “considerable concern that international travel over the next period will undermine the progress made by the country in recent weeks.”
As previously reported, the Nphet also recommended that the hospitality sector not reopen in December citing the increased risk of such indoor environments.
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