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Perhaps inevitably, much of the government’s Covid-19 summit on Thursday was held on Zoom.
Outwardly, it was announced as a cabinet subcommittee meeting, but in reality all the key players in the state’s response to the pandemic were broadcast from the buildings that have been the ground zero of Ireland’s response to the pandemic.
“It was all very Star Wars,” recalls a source in the room.
From the Health Department in Miesan Plaza, Medical Director Tony Holohan, his deputy Ronan Glynn, and Chief Model Philip Nolan dialed the number.
From the headquarters of the Executive of the Health Service at Dr. Steevens Hospital was its executive director Paul Reid, while the team in the government buildings was so large that it was divided into two rooms.
In one were Taoiseach, Tánaiste, Eamon Ryan, Stephen Donnelly, Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath, permanent members of the Covid Cabinet subcommittee. They were joined by Simon Coveney and Helen McEntee, and the chief of staff of each party leader. Upstairs in room 301 of the government buildings, a large team of key advisers and public officials called.
Broadly speaking, the meeting was divided into two parts: the first, the much vaunted “Battle of the Spreadsheets”, which marked the arguments of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) in favor of a stricter period of restrictions against government-commissioned data. This was elaborated “to make sure Nphet was not the only voice in the room,” a source said.
Pressuring the experts
This was followed by a purely political meeting, which shaped the memorandum that went to Cabinet yesterday.
First, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe presented the cost of pandemic interventions, estimated at more than one billion euros in the last five weeks.
Members of Nphet followed him and described the rationale for the recommendations made to the government that same day. This said that hospitality must remain effectively closed; or if it opens, home visits should be reduced.
An extensive question and answer session followed and was described by a source as “fair and honest.” The Nphet members were pressed about the impact of the measures they had recommended and how they could be sure that six weeks at Level 5 had been worth it. They were also asked how Ireland compares to other European countries in terms of restrictions and why the hospitalization and mortality figures differ from the first wave.
The argument of public health officials came down to the need to create a “cushion” before “natural socialization” around the Christmas period.
They argued that the important R number had to be kept close to 1 “in and out” of Christmas. Opening restaurants during the first three weeks of December could create a baseline that could then push case numbers to the limit when households can mix, they warned.
Politicians also asked what should be done if the number of cases started to spiral out of control during December. Nphet officials said that if exponential growth occurred, the most important thing would be to act quickly and decisively, not necessarily that a particular set of measures should be implemented, but rather that a solution be identified and acted upon.
A key milestone mentioned was whether there were 400 cases per day and the number was increasing rapidly, the sources said.
Pádraig Dalton, head of the Central Bureau of Statistics, gave a presentation describing the serious impact of the pandemic on mental health and well-being, while Liz Canavan, an official from the Department of Taoiseach, presented data compiled by the consultancy Hey. This focused on what appeared to have triggered outbreaks, including the finding that cities that were successful in county GAA championships tended to have higher levels of disease, as well as the impact of the opening of wet pubs outside of Dublin. and examine whether the growth of the disease was driven by restaurants or pubs.
It is understood that the possibility of opening wet pubs and resuming children’s team sports was discussed during both parts of the meeting, with politicians told that opening pubs in particular could be expected to add 0.3 to the R number, dramatically accelerating the spread of the coronavirus. .
A key consideration during the political meeting, sources present said, was figuring out how to balance the twin goals of opening up hospitality and allowing households to mingle.
Nphet’s advice was clear: one could happen, but not the other. Given this binary choice, the government was faced with trying to please two masters, fulfilling a political promise to reopen the economy, which was deeply entrenched, while facilitating the long-awaited mix of families during the holiday period.
It decided to keep the house restrictions until December 18, a more severe measure than Nphet recommended, but then it would allow both hospitality and house visits for two weeks. The importance of December for the hospitality sector, which can represent up to 30 percent of its annual income, was a key factor in this decision.
Infection spikes
The discussion also focused on the experience of summer “vacation” counties, such as Galway, Mayo and Kerry, which experienced considerable socializing and eating out, but did not register significant spikes in infection.
Politicians also discussed antigen testing and the need to improve testing and tracking capabilities. They also looked forward to the new year, discussing the possibility of an increase in liquidations and layoffs as struggling companies closed.
Politicians also spoke about travel and the border, with Health Minister Stephen Donnelly expressing concern about travel-related cases and how he believed the system to prevent cases from being seeded on international travel was not robust enough. .
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar raised the issue of cases arising from cross-border travel, arguing that there is insufficient data in this regard. It is understood that you have written to an HSE agency seeking more information.
The government has now played its hand and the state is about to enter perhaps the most precarious phase of its fight with Covid-19: attempting to balance public health, well-being, and economic concerns, while keeping a tired public. of the battle.
Faced with such a complex set of problems, the risk of a misstep is considerable and the penalties for failing when the stakes are high will be severe.
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