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Ireland is in a “precarious” position in the fight against Covid-19, so the hospitality sector should not open in December, the medical director told the government earlier this week.
In the tough letter from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) to the Government on the latest outlook for the coronavirus, Dr. Tony Holohan issued harsh warnings about the impacts that the opening of the economy could have, which the government announced tonight that would have.
The letter says that while the number of cases is declining with a reproductive number of just under 1, the model shows that if it were to increase to 1.2, “the level of disease in January 2021 will present a real and substantial threat to protection. current health public and the most vulnerable “.
Calling this “optimistically low,” Dr. Holohan says it would mean a daily rate of 400 cases a day in January, meaning that if restrictions are lowered, a third wave of the virus “will strike much more quickly and with higher mortality. than the second “. .
The letter recommends:
- Level 3 enhanced restrictions for eight weeks starting December 1
- A relaxation of home visiting rules from December 21 to January 3 to allow for Christmas
- The complete restoration of Level 3 as soon as possible as “a proactive measure”.
In the 36-page letter, Dr. Holohan suggests that home visits be limited to six people from a maximum of three households, something that the government rejected, without putting a limit on the number of meetings, but maintaining the household limit.
All non-essential travel to and from Northern Ireland should be avoided due to the Covid situation there, the letter adds. On December 18, a government recommendation will be made in this regard.
🚨 Tony Holohan’s letter warns Ireland in a “precarious” position and that the virus could develop “quickly”.
Here’s what NPHET recommended: Include tips to avoid nonessential travel north. pic.twitter.com/GCxJeZ2ntt
– Richard Chambers (@newschambers) November 27, 2020
Dr. Holohan says there is “mounting evidence” that indoor environments like bars and restaurants contribute to viral spread, meaning the government must choose between opening up the hospitality sector and home visiting.
Nphet further recommended that religious services should only be allowed from December 21 to January 3.
Nphet also expressed “considerable concern” that international travel could undo the good work done during the last five weeks of Level 5.
He ends by saying: “In conclusion, while significant progress has been made in reducing the incidence of the disease, the five-day average rate remains at a high level.
“Ireland is in a precarious position where we are vulnerable to a sudden and sharp increase in incidence. Nphet’s advice is that we don’t have the flexibility to reopen the hospitality industry if we want to ease the ban on home visits.
“Health services remain particularly vulnerable … Simply put, many people may not follow public health advice to limit social activity. An increase in incidence is likely to be compounded by an increase in the intergenerational mix. in the Christmas period, this can result in an increase in the infection of the most vulnerable.
“It is clear that early action will be needed if there is a significant increase in incidence from current levels to ensure this is as brief as possible.”
If cases hit more than 400 a day in January, it will take a three-week lockdown to control them, the letter says.
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