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NPHET presented the Minister of Health with severe scenarios about the impact on reproductive numbers if hospitality were reopened and home visits were allowed.
In a private letter to Stephen Donnelly, the Minister of Health, on November 26 regarding the most recent NPHET meeting, he said that:
“We remain especially vulnerable to an increase in the number of reproduction given the high number of cases per day and the high probability of a significant increase in socialization given the time of year.”
Today the Taoiseach made a public address where he outlined the government’s approach to get out of Level 5 and prepare for Christmas. Shops, restaurants and some pubs were confirmed to reopen next week.
The green light was also given for home visits at Christmas, within certain guidelines.
However, NPHET had some comments to make in its letter about the potential impact of home visits and socialization on the spread of the virus.
Play number
The current best estimate of the R0, or breeding number (which indicates how contagious an infectious disease is), is 0.7 and 1.0, NPHET said in its letter.
He said international evidence suggesting that hospitality closure could reduce R by 0.1 to 0.2 according to national data from NPHET, and preventing inter-household mixing “could have an equivalent effect on R.”
NPHET also said that if the restrictions are eased now, from a greater base strength of the infection, a third wave of disease “will ensue more quickly and with higher mortality than the second.”
He warned that “the trajectory of the disease could change again quite quickly” in Ireland.
Hospitality and social mix
When it comes to hospitality, he said the risks associated with these settings are still too high at current infection levels, and that hospitality settings and gatherings in places like bars and restaurants have been associated with wide-spread events. .
For this reason, it recommended that the hospitality store remain closed, except for take-out and delivery, for the eight-week period. But if any element of hospitality is preserved, he opined that the relaxation of the measures relating to the mix of households, as established in his letter, could not be carried out either.
NPHET said its advice to the government is that “we do not have the flexibility to allow the resumption of hospitality in restaurants and bars if we want to allow a relaxation of the current ban on mixing between households while protecting the core goals of protecting public health and those that they are more vulnerable, and the continuous provision of essential services of social and health care, education and childcare ”.
Using models, NPHET predicted that even in a highly controlled scenario where R remains at 1.2 from December 1 to 21, and returns to that level as of January 7, 2021, “the model suggests that the level of disease in January 2021 will present a real value and substantial threat to the permanent protection of public health and the most vulnerable ”.
But according to your model, if R stays below 1.2, the number of cases is still low.
However, if R is 1.4 or greater, NPHET said that we would exceed 400 cases per day in January 2021.
“If we start with a higher number of cases in early December, this threshold will be exceeded sooner,” he said.
“Ireland is in a very precarious position where we are vulnerable to a sudden and sharp increase in incidence.”
He said that while “significant progress has been made” in reducing the incidence of the disease, the five-day average of cases remains at a high level of about 300 cases with a reproduction number “likely to rise above of 1 in the following weeks. ” flexibility of measures ”.
He said Ireland followed a disease trajectory similar to many other European countries during the summer, following the response to wave one. But after the introduction of Level 5 measures, the country deviated from European neighbors in terms of the disease trajectory.
He said that since then, we have seen a substantial reduction in the incidence of illness “in line with a stabilization or reduction in terms of hospitalizations, critical care admissions and deaths.”
It is reasonable to conclude, NPHET said, “that Ireland prevented substantial transmission of disease and its associated morbidity, mortality and pressure on the ability and delivery of health care.”
But he said “we remain especially vulnerable to an increase in the number of reproduction given the high number of cases per day and the high probability of significantly greater socialization given the time of year.”
NPHET said that “in simple terms, many people may not follow public health advice to limit social activity” this Christmas.
An increase in disease incidence is likely to be compounded by significant intergenerational mixing around the Christmas period, he added.
NPHET said it will continue to closely monitor the effects of the move to level 3 in the coming weeks.
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When asked about the above at a press conference after his speech tonight, the Taoiseach said:
“NPHET was clear that it couldn’t be done both in terms of hospitality and domestic restrictions.”
He said the government has decided not to have visitors until December 18, which is more conservative than NPHET suggested.
“There are risks associated with this,” he said, adding that this is why he said in his previous speech that “all of our behavior is key here.” The Taoiseach also noted that a CSO survey said there had been a high level of low overall life satisfaction since last April in Ireland.
He said that there are balances and calls that the government has to make, given the impact on people’s well-being.
“I think we are obviously going to keep an eye on this and work with NPHET and others to make sure this is under constant review,” Martin said.
He added: “The challenge is getting through Christmas. We want this to be sustainable. “
Things will be reviewed again on January 6 and the government is “learning all the time” in relation to this, Martín said.
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