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HAVE WE STOPPED?
Much of this week’s discussion about Covid-19 concerns an increase in the number of cases since last Friday, speculation about what our lives will be like after Level 5, and what kind of Christmas awaits us.
But what does the latest Covid-19 data tell us about our efforts to suppress the virus?
Health officials confirmed another 429 Covid-19 cases and four more deaths Thursday night.
A total of 379 new cases were confirmed on Wednesday and 366 new cases were confirmed on Tuesday.
That’s a total of 1,174 cases compared to 1,027 cases during the same period last week and 1,357 cases the week before.
Ireland’s breeding number last week was estimated at 0.6, having been between 0.7 and 0.9 the week before. It has risen again this week and has returned to between 0.7 and 0.9.
This is not the downtrend we expected.
Ireland’s national incidence rate is 116.5 cases per 100,000 population on a 14-day moving average, according to data from the Center for Health Protection Surveillance, compared to 135.5 on this day last week and 212 , 7 the week before. That’s a 45% drop in the last 14 days.
However, the incidence rate fell by more than 50% between October 30 and November 13, a further indication that Ireland’s rate of decline has slowed over the past seven days.
Shoots until last Thursday.
Source: HPSC
NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group Chair Professor Philip Nolan said TheJournal.ie that “we have made great progress” since October 22.
“We have gone from an average daily case count of 1,200 cases a day to 400 cases a day. We are doing very well compared to European nations in general, ”he said.
“So that’s the good news. But what we have to point out is that this rapid decline in case counts has stalled. Now we’re stuck at 400 a day and we’ve been stuck at 400 a day for a week. “
When looking at the incidence rate in individual counties, these skyrocketed in October, then began to decline, and declined further in the 14 days through last Friday morning.
However, HPSC data shows that the 14-day incidence rate in several counties is increasing.
Donegal, the county with the highest incidence rate in the country, continues to be of concern to health officials.
The county’s 14-day incidence rate is currently 264.5 cases per 100,000, a slight decrease of 6% from 281.4 cases per 100,000 last week.
Limerick ranks second in Ireland with a 14-day incidence rate of 221.7 cases per 100,000, compared to 197.5 cases last Thursday, an increase of 12% in one week.
Waterford has had a significant increase in its 14-day incidence rate, from 115.3 last Thursday to 154.9. That is a 25% increase.
Professor Philip Nolan, Chairman of the NPHET Ireland Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group.
Source: Sam Boal / RollingNews.ie
By analyzing mobility data and close contact data, Professor Nolan says that health officials have concluded that movements of people were greatly reduced from October 22 to the midterm break, which which resulted in a “large drop in assists detected at workplaces.”
The number of close contacts also started to decline, but has since climbed back up to an average of 3 or more after falling below 3 at the end of October. “We can literally see it happening at the end of the midterm break. And it’s not the fact that kids have gone back to school, it’s the fact that adults are leaving home more, ”Nolan said.
However, this change is marginal, Nolan said. “So a little extra effort over the next two or three weeks to reduce our contacts will get us back on the right track.”
Counties with the lowest incidence rates include Wexford (37.4), Wicklow (56.9), and Galway (70.9), all of which have seen a reduction in 14-day incidence rates from between 7 % and 20% in the last seven days.
Cavan, who had the highest incidence rate at the beginning of Level 5, now has an estimated 14-day average of 90.6 cases per 100,000, according to the Department of Health.
It was 118.1 last week and stood at 364.9 cases per 100,000 last Thursday.
That is a significant decrease of 75% for fifteen days. In total, Cavan’s 14-day incidence rate has dropped by over 90% since the Level 5 restrictions went into effect.
Compared to Europe, Ireland’s 14-day incidence rate is lower than that of France (778.7), Spain (513.3), the United Kingdom (497.1) and Italy (798.5), according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
Source: ECDC
The countries mentioned, including Ireland, are still considerably lower than Austria, which has a 14-day incidence rate of 1,083.7 and Luxembourg, which has a 14-day incidence rate of 1,195.2 per 100,000.
Testing and tracing
Approximately 116,000 tests were carried out during the 7 days until Thursday October 22, when Ireland entered level 5. The positivity rate was 6.9%.
Approximately 103,000 tests were carried out in the 7 days until October 29 and 88,547 tests were carried out in the seven days until last Thursday.
Last week, approximately 77,718 tests have been conducted as of November 11. This week, approximately 77,292 tests have been performed in the last seven days.
The positivity rate last week was estimated at 3.5%, a decrease from 4.6% from the previous week.
One more indication that Covid-19 suppression has stalled this week, Ireland’s positivity has risen again, to 3.8%.
Hospital and ICU
There have been 20 hospital admissions in the last 24 hours and 23 discharges.
There are, as of Thursday morning, 290 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in hospitals and 33 people in Intensive Care Units.
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Last Thursday, there were 275 cases of Covid-19 hospitalized and 38 people in ICU.
As seen in the graph below, ICU cases peaked between Saturday 1 and Monday 3, fell back to the lowest point from October 28 to October 4, increased again last week but since then they have decreased.
Source: Department of Health
Clusters
So where do people get Covid-19?
In terms of clusters and outbreaks, Professor Nolan says that public health teams are currently seeing small outbreaks in a variety of work settings.
“People are picking it up in the community in ways that we can’t detect. They are picking it up at small private social gatherings, be it a family reunion or a funeral. People find it very difficult not to socialize, especially if it is a major event in life.
“But we are also seeing it in workplaces, that’s a major factor, and outbreaks in hospitals that we have to be very careful about,” Nolan said.
The recent increase in outbreaks in schools has slowed again since last week, the data shows.
The HPSC reported 10 outbreaks as of Saturday. There were 24 outbreaks reported in the previous 7 days and 30 outbreaks in the previous seven days.
However, HPSC notes: “These outbreaks are outbreaks associated with school-age children + / or school personnel. Transmission of Covid-19 within the school has not necessarily been established in these outbreaks. ”
Source: HPSC
The total number of outbreaks since the start of the pandemic is 8,311. Of these, 4,992 remain “open” according to recent HPSC data.
For an outbreak to be considered “closed,” 28 days must elapse after the last case was diagnosed or became symptomatic.
There were 954 new outbreaks in private homes as of last Saturday, an increase of 511 or 53% from the previous week, bringing the total number of outbreaks in this setting to 6,228 since the pandemic hit Ireland.
Of these, 4,210 remain open.
Finally, there have been 6 new outbreaks in nursing homes – 48 outbreaks in nursing homes remain “open”.
In the seven days through last Thursday, there was an overall 16% increase in outbreaks across all settings.
Overall, taking in all settings this week, outbreaks have increased by 45% since last week.
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