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Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann has warned that more Covid-19 restrictions are needed before the end of this month to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.
That would mean the suspension of the planned easing of the restrictions.
Cafes and close contact services such as hair salons are set to open tomorrow, while pubs and restaurants are scheduled to reopen next Friday.
The Stormont Executive will meet today to discuss the latest medical and scientific advice and to consider whether the restrictions should be extended.
It comes as 12 other coronavirus deaths were recorded in Northern Ireland, ten in the past 24 hours, bringing the official Health Department number to 901.
There are 487 new test cases on 3,134 people, bringing the cumulative total to 48,716.
There are 456 confirmed Covid-19 patients in the hospital, with 41 in intensive care units, 32 of whom are on respirators.
Health officials in Northern Ireland have raised concerns about an increase in the R number, the reproductive value of the virus, from 0.7 to around 1.0 in recent weeks.
Discussing the impact of the current restrictions, Stormont’s chief scientific adviser, Professor Ian Young, said yesterday that “we have not yet seen the drop we expected.”
A paper submitted for discussion by Swann cautions that current restrictions should be extended and possibly expanded to cover nonessential retail, which has remained open.
It recommends that two more weeks of restrictions starting next Friday, November 27, would be the most effective way to reduce the transmission of the virus.
The infection rate in Northern Ireland is still much higher than in the Republic, with 518 new cases yesterday, which is equivalent to more than 1,300 in the south.
Swann’s article says advice from Stormont’s leading scientific and medical experts is that additional restrictions are required before Christmas.
He warns that if no additional interventions are made by the end of this month, even imposing a full shutdown as of December 14 is likely to be insufficient to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.
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A serious deterioration in nursing homes is also expected to be discussed today.
Biweekly testing of staff and residents of the 488 nursing homes in Northern Ireland was introduced at the end of July.
On October 12, there were coronavirus outbreaks in 46 homes.
A month later, on November 12, that number had risen to 143.
Yesterday, just five days later, it had risen to 166.
The strong increase has occurred despite the ban on home visits and restrictions that have closed the hospitality sector.
Health authorities say staff are bringing the virus into homes and do not know they are infected.
The executive is expected to discuss a proposal to introduce daily tests for all nursing home staff and other frontline healthcare workers.
Swann has also written to Health Secretary Matt Hancock about the possibility of a massive testing program in Northern Ireland, similar to the one unveiled in Liverpool earlier this month.
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