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Ireland could have 1,000 Covid-19 cases a day again by mid-January if the lockdown is lifted and the virus is not sufficiently suppressed, health officials have predicted.
The forecast is revealed in the recently released minutes of the October meeting of the National Public Health Emergencies Team (Nphet), where they recommended the six-week level 5 lockdown.
The meeting was told that if the R number, which indicates the number of people that a person with the virus will infect, is 0.7, it would not provide enough suppression, and cases would rise back to 1,000 per day within the six weeks later. the publication of strict public health measures.
Last Thursday, the R number was estimated at 0.6 and there was optimism that daily cases could drop to between 50 and 100 by early December. But in recent days that forecast has changed, as daily cases remain at more than 400 and it is feared that the situation will deteriorate.
The October minutes also reveal that they forecast that a two-week delay in implementing a lockdown could lead to an additional 24,000 cases, close to 1,000 hospitalizations, 140 ICU admissions and 120 deaths.
The minutes reveal: “Nphet recognized that the only strategy that could effectively re-control the resurgence of the disease is a set of very strict public health measures at the population level that would reduce the number of effective reproduction to approximately 0.5 during the year. minus six weeks. “
He went on to state that Nphet recommended Level 5 measures, subject to periodic review.
“Nphet warned again that he believes schools should remain open during this period of restrictions. Nphet members highlighted the importance of explaining and communicating the data, evidence and justification that support their recommendation to allow the government to give it due consideration ”.
The minutes said that the president reminded those present once again “the need for confidentiality and the importance of planned communication.”
“Several areas were highlighted that will require planning and development over the next period to support easing of restrictions at the appropriate time. Further improvement and investment in the state’s public health response system was highlighted as one of those areas, as ensuring that there is a sustainable capacity to quickly identify, respond to, and manage cases and outbreaks will be essential when restrictions are lifted.
“Nphet also confirmed that it would consider the future strategic response to the pandemic in the coming weeks, while continuing to monitor the trajectory of the disease within Level 5.”
A previous meeting in October noted that there was an increase in cases among healthcare workers, but the indications were that they were hiring him from the wider community and taking him to the hospital setting rather than picking him up at work.
Previous minutes reveal that meetings with various youth groups were planned and that “influencers” would be seen as promoting the need for anti-Covid measures, but would be “unpaid.”
A report on intensive care capacity in hospitals showed that Ireland has 6.0 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants, including private hospitals, compared to the European average of 11.5 per 100,000.
Now there are 280 to 285 open beds. About 31 have been opened since March.
The clinical risk remains at an acceptable level of being able to have 350 beds in the event of a sudden increase, but beyond that there should be an impact on patient outcomes.
The minutes of the meeting on Sunday, October 4, and the anticipated return of the medical director, Dr. Tony Holohan, show that the meeting was called to urgently consider the significant and worrying deterioration of the national situation.
The meeting agreed that a national approach was needed and that the existing measures at Level 3 were not sufficient to control the disease. They decided to recommend the immediate implementation of Level 5.
This was rejected by the government initially, but later the country was moved to Level 5.
Irish independent
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