Level 5: What if Ireland hadn’t been on lockdown for six weeks when it did according to NPHET?

NPHET expert Philip Nolan has explained how close Ireland’s healthcare system was to chaos and what would have happened if we hadn’t entered the Level 5 lockdown for six weeks when we did.

The health chief said Ireland’s health system was only “two weeks” from being overwhelmed when the government made the decision.

Lead Professor Nolan shared data on his Twitter showing the projection of the virus before the tough new restrictions were introduced.

He wrote: “When we began this phase of our response to COVID-19 three weeks ago, we could not be sure that collectively we would get to where we are today: R safely less than 1.0 and close to 0.5; daily case numbers less. 400 and decreasing from -5% to -7% per day.

“Three weeks ago, we were reporting 1200 cases per day, growing exponentially at 5% -8% per day, and we were probably 2-3 weeks away from our healthcare system being overwhelmed.

“We are in a very different position now. We have shown what we can accomplish, and the next three weeks will make a difference. If we continue like this, we will have fewer than 100 cases a day by December 1, and a brighter future.

He added: “My thanks, as always, to the many colleagues in the health services and universities responsible for the collection, preservation, analysis and modeling of the data.”

Speaking at last night’s Health Department briefing, Professor Nolan said that Ireland had seen “very significant improvements”.

He added: “Every day when we look at the case numbers, on average we are seeing 6 percent fewer cases than the day before.

“We are starting to see improvements in the counties of Ireland, some more than others.”