Coronavirus Ireland: ‘On track for less than 100 cases per day by December’ but Nphet warns ‘no room for maneuver’



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One more death related to the coronavirus and 395 new cases confirmed today by the Department of Health.

This brings the total number of people who have died from this virus to 1,965, while 66,632 cases have been confirmed to date.

Of the cases reported today; 197 are men and 198 are women; 65 percent are under 45 years old and the average age is 35 years.

132 new cases were confirmed in Dublin, 31 in Cork, 27 in Donegal, 27 in Limerick, 27 in Galway and the remaining 151 cases are distributed in another 18 counties.

The 14-day national incidence rate has fallen to 135 per 100,000.

The five-day moving average is 364 boxes per day.

64% of the cases in the last 14 days corresponded to people under 45 years of age.

There are 20 newly confirmed cases in hospitals in the last 24 hours.

In November, there were 33 deaths in confirmed and probable Covid-19 cases.

Medical director Dr. Tony Holohan echoed Tánaiste Leo Varadkar’s advice to Irish living abroad not to book flights home just yet.

He explained: “We are concerned about the outlook in other countries relative to here. Many other countries in Europe are still in a deteriorating situation.

“I’m sure some of you have seen the photos from across Europe of some of the challenges that big cities and hospitals face. That is the experience of our close neighbors or the places where people return for Christmas.

“That will be one of the biggest risks for us if we make the progress that we continue to make. One of the biggest risks will be re-importation of the disease and our position is that we discourage all non-essential travel and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.” Dr. Holohan said.

Dr. Holohan says the Pfizer data is very encouraging, but says it is not a message to people “that we have figured this out.”

The CMO says it is not known how long it will protect people or how effective it will be in the community.

Holohan also says Nphet is not in a position to predict whether they will recommend bars and restaurants to open in December.

Ireland has the second lowest incidence of Covid-19 in the ECDC region, according to Dr. Desmond Hickey, Deputy Medical Director.

Dr. Tony Holohan says Nphet will meet on November 26 to discuss the current recommendation of restrictions and whether they can recommend a lesser set of restrictions.

Dr Holohan said he is hopeful that Nphet is in a position to do so, but said things should continue to improve at the rate they are so far.

“The signs are very, very encouraging, but we are not yet in a position where we can say that we know we can recommend a change at the end of the month.”

Ireland’s breeding number is now estimated at 0.6, according to Professor Philip Nolan, who is tracking the virus.

“Epidemiological data is showing continuous very significant improvements,” says Professor Nolan.

“We still have a significant number of people in hospitals. Hospital numbers are decreasing, but they are slowly decreasing. We see that about 20 people a day are admitted to the hospital and that remains constant. Therefore, we are not out of danger still.

“Intensive care admissions, at best, have leveled off. We expect to see a reduction in these numbers in the coming weeks, but we haven’t seen one yet,” the modeling expert said.

Of the 28 ECDC countries, 17 have an incidence rate of 500 or more, more than triple the current rate in Ireland based on ECDC data of 139.

The number of cases in hospitals continues to decline, notes Dr. Vida Hamilton, National Clinical Advisor and Group Leader for Acute Hospitals.

The demand for tests has dropped to about 11,000 tests per day and fewer of those tests are positive, says Professor Nolan, adding: “This is a very strong indicator of the decline in the prevalence of the disease in the population.”

The incidence rate in Ireland has fallen from 306 at the end of October to less than half (135) in less than three weeks.

Professor Nolan says we are where we want to be in terms of disease reduction, as Nphet estimates that there is an average 6% reduction in the number of cases per day.

“We have to keep this going for the full six weeks, and if we do, we are on track to see less than 100 cases per day by December 1.”

Professor Nolan says “we are exactly where we want to be, but there is no room for maneuver.” The Nphet member said that “the next three weeks will have to be the same as the last three to be where we need to be.”

Dr. Holohan says it is “simply too early” to plan for Christmas due to the uncertain nature of the virus, but said large-scale “alcohol-related” events would cause Nphet more concern.

“Those are events in a ‘normal’ Christmas that happen. Office parties, large family gatherings, gatherings in other circumstances. These are all kinds of events that we would like to see but will not be possible this year.” Said Dr. Holohan.

This comes as Northern Ireland confirmed another 15 deaths from the virus today.

Eleven of the deaths occurred in the past 24 hours, while four were previously unreported. The death toll in the region is now 825.

Another 548 people in Northern Ireland tested positive for the virus after 7,912 tests were carried out on 2,892 people in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has advised Irish people abroad not to book flights home for Christmas. Varadkar said it was “too early” to know if it would be safe for the Irish to return home for the festive season.

More to follow ..

Online editors

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