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The number of children attending primary school is expected to decline by approximately 20 percent (more than 100,000 students) in the next 15 years, according to projections from the Department of Education.
The sharp reduction can lead to a teacher surplus at the primary level and could threaten the future of some small schools.
However, school leaders say the decline is an opportunity to reduce class sizes in the state, which according to surveys are among the highest in Europe.
Official projections show that enrollment at the primary level peaked last year and is likely to decline through 2034. This decline is based in part on a projected decline in the average number of children born to women of childbearing age.
This measure has fallen dramatically, from just over two children in 2010 to around 1.77 last year. The report projects that it will drop to 1.6 by 2031 and will remain stable thereafter. The impact of Covid-19 on births is unknown and has not been included in the model, it adds.
By contrast, high school enrollment is forecast to rise sharply over the next four years, reaching a record 410,000. This is due to a population increase that is moving from the primary sector to the second level.
However, the decline in the number of students at the primary level is likely to raise new concerns about the future of small schools.
Almost half, 44%, of elementary schools have four or fewer teachers. They represent only 15 percent of the student population. The schools that are considered the highest risk are one or two teachers, of which there are about 550, and are mainly based in rural areas on the west coast.
The Irish Primary Directors Network said the figures show the urgent need to boost support for small schools to ensure their survival.
“We need to look at ideas like clustering supports or teachers into small school clusters to make sure they are sustainable in the future,” said Network Executive Director Pairic Clerkin.
Official department policy is that schools are closed only with the consent of parents or a board of directors.
‘Great opportunity’
The prospect of hundreds of excess teachers in the event of a decline in enrollment was raised in a 2018 spending review by the Department of Public Expenditure. However, the National Organization of Teachers of Ireland said the drop in the number represents a “great opportunity” to reduce class sizes.
“Maintaining the number of teachers in elementary will reduce class sizes at no additional cost. This is a demographic dividend that enables Ireland to achieve smaller classes like our EU neighbors, ”said a union spokesperson.
In a statement, the department said the report’s findings will be used to assess the teacher supply and demand model, along with advance planning for school buildings.
The department’s spokesman said the teacher redeployment plans are aimed at ensuring surplus teachers are relocated to other schools that have openings.
The report says that the steepest drops in enrollment will be between 2022 and 2027, with the number of students projected to decline by 11,000 per year. After the lowest point in 2034, it projects that enrollments will increase more slowly in 2035-2036.
Second-tier, it says that enrollments have risen 8 percent in the past five years and are projected to peak in 2024 with just over 410,400 students, a record.
At the Leaving Certificate level, the numbers are projected to rise to 60,955 students this year and peak at just under 70,000 in 2026.
The drop in student numbers after 2024 will be more gradual and the numbers will decrease steadily each year.
In a statement, the department said the report’s findings will be used to assess the teacher supply and demand model, along with advance planning for school buildings.
A spokesperson said the projected drop in enrollment will vary in different parts of the country and that teacher relocation schemes are aimed at ensuring surplus teachers are relocated to other schools that have openings.
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