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It is “incorrect” to claim that the National Public Health Emergency Team acted prematurely to advise the government to impose stricter restrictions, said the chairman of NPHET’s Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group.
Speaking on RTÉ’s News at One, Professor Philip Nolan also said that it was wrong to claim that the sustained drop in Covid-19 cases would have occurred under Level 3 restrictions that were in place in early October.
He said people “voluntarily” cut off their social contacts before the government’s decision to introduce Level 5 restrictions.
“The week before level 5, people voluntarily cut their own social contacts knowing what was coming, I imagine, and now we are seeing the beginning of the additional impact of level 5 on spontaneous change in people’s behavior,” he said.
Professor Nolan said he anticipates that the number of breeders will continue to decline in the coming weeks.
“Now it is comfortably below one, so each case is infecting less than one person and we think it is declining even further.”
He said his team is looking at how to ensure that the risk level of indoor discretionary behavior is kept low.
“In December, we will have to ensure that the level of higher risk indoor discretionary social contacts that people engage in remains low to stifle the specific opportunities that the virus likes to pass on and that we open up in ways that are less risk and the safest in terms of virus transmission. “
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Earlier, Health Service Executive Clinical Director Dr. Colm Henry said there is cause for hope with some “stabilization” of the coronavirus, but that does not mean that level 5 restrictions need to be eased sooner.
Speaking on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, Dr Henry said what we are seeing in Europe is that if we stop imposing restrictions too early and people stop taking action “we see rapid deterioration”.
However, he said that Ireland was in an improved position with a declining R rate and positivity rate, and a drop in cases among two age groups in particular, the youngest and the older vulnerable groups.
Referring to hopes of reuniting for Christmas, Dr. Henry said they want people to come together after what has been a “torrid year” but added that “we must first see through these measures and get the broadcast go down to very low levels. “
He said they want Christmas to be safe so people can safely congregate and visit homes safely, but made it clear that they also want January and February to be safe.
“Ultimately, decisions are made by the government not only based on public health guidance, but on broader economic interests,” said Dr. Henry.
He said the HSE is currently looking at a range of Covid-19 testing strategies to ensure they are safe and effective and that there are 23 tests on the market with two stages.
He said the PCR test is “good”, showing a high level of sensitivity.
Dr. Henry said, “If we had an antigen test that is 80% of the sensitivity of the PCR test, we could fail one in five cases.
“We don’t want to lose one in five cases in a nursing home or other vulnerable setting.”
Dr. Henry said they are finding at this stage that some company sensitivity statements do not match the field assessment.
He said: “We want to see a standard where we can give a good degree of assurance to people that this test that they are using, however fast it is, is providing a fairly accurate result.
“We will examine these tests dispassionately and objectively first to validate them, and second, we will test them in different settings.”
He said it will take time and he doesn’t expect those tests to be available to those hoping to travel before Christmas.
“It is unlikely, because we need to validate those tests,” he said.
Within nursing home settings, Dr. Henry said they are still seeing a series of Covid-19 outbreaks with around seven outbreaks of great concern based on the size of the outbreak and the impact on staffing.
“Once it enters a vulnerable environment, it is virulent and difficult to control,” he added.
He said there has been a reduction in demand for testing and tracking as of late and a 30% drop in GP referrals as well.
Dr. Henry said they currently have 450 contact trackers and are continuing to recruit to reach the 800 figure.
Meanwhile, Professor Sam McConkey, infectious disease specialist at the Royal College of Surgeons, has said he was confident that Ireland will leave the “Red” travel zone in December.
Speaking on RTÉ’s Today with Claire Byrne, Professor McConkey said that the suppression of Covid-19 in recent weeks would suggest that “more open travel” will be possible.
He said there is “always a risk” of the virus entering the country if Ireland eases its overseas travel restrictions, “like what happened in February and March when the cases were linked to northern Italy and Cheltenham.”
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