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Fears sparked by the tsunami of the second wave of Covid-19 infection gripping parts of Europe could slow the degree to which this country will open up for Christmas, despite signs that the virus is on its way to being removed in early December.
Ireland and Finland are currently the only two European countries where there is a drop in the 14-day incidence of the disease. Although there is still a “way to go” here, with ongoing high levels of the virus, including 591 new cases yesterday, the restrictions are working.
However, Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan said yesterday that his team will seek advice from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control as part of its overall analysis on how to better manage virus control during the holiday season.
HSE Clinical Director Dr. Colm Henry previously warned that “shocking” levels of the virus are now sweeping through some European countries.
He cautioned that it is an important reminder of how a national outbreak can deteriorate and pointed to Switzerland, which had 2,500 cases a week in mid-September and is now battling 50,000 infections a week.
However, both doctors recognized the importance of Christmas to the Irish.
Dr. Holohan said the lower the number of daily cases in early December, the more flexibility there will be to ease lockdown restrictions.
He spoke when three more deaths were reported yesterday along with 591 new cases of the virus.
There are encouraging signs that the spread of infection here, which has been increasing among older people, is declining again.
However, Dr. Holohan said he found it “offensive” that some commentators felt that “if you are over a certain age or have an underlying disease,” your death is not as important as any other death.
All deaths from Covid-related diseases must be avoided, he stressed.
Professor Philip Nolan, who is tracking the virus, said: “We estimate the reproduction number between 0.7 and 0.9”.
However, it could be even lower by 0.5. The lower the number, the less the virus will spread.
He said the average daily incidence of Covid-19 has halved in the past two weeks and is now decreasing by 5% per day. It should be at 6-8pc in the next two weeks.
There are now three to five deaths a day from the virus, but it is expected to decrease in due course.
The evidence is that the average number of contacts a person confirmed with the virus has is declining, from around four in the last few weeks to around two or three.
Dr Holohan said: “The 19-24 age group has achieved a drastic reduction in incidence, from 450 per 100,000 to 150 per 100,000 in two weeks.
“They have also cut their contacts in half in the last five weeks. We must all recognize the efforts of our young people and I thank them ”.
Yesterday’s cases included 120 in Dublin, 75 in Donegal, 50 in Cork, 46 in Kerry and 44 in Limerick. The remaining 256 cases were distributed to another 20 counties.
Earlier in the Dáil, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said he did not want to “provide misinformation about what people might do in December. He said he would not make any promises because “in two or three weeks we might have to turn around and say we are not going to be able to do that.”
Meanwhile, there is renewed concern about declining emergency care and fears that people who need to have worrisome symptoms controlled are avoiding hospitals again.
The Irish Hospital Consultants Association (IHCA) expressed concern about the lack of consultants and capacity in Ireland’s cancer services which is leaving many cancer patients waiting months to see a specialist.
In a video interview published by the IHCA, Saint Vincent’s Hospital cancer specialist Professor John Crown said that cancer care is complex and that Ireland’s health system “is already creaking and at risk of have real problems. “
Difficulty accessing timely consultant appointments and testing equipment to monitor response, regression, or progression to cancer treatment is a key barrier many patients face, he said.
“The last thing patients need to hear is that we would like to get this scan, but we can’t do it for a month … delayed treatment is treatment denied.”
Earlier, HSE Director Paul Reid said consultants warned they have to perform “higher risk” interventions in some patients who should have been treated earlier. “If people need urgent care, please come forward,” he added.
HSE Clinical Advisor Dr. Colm Henry again appealed to people in need of emergency care to come to the emergency department.
He said that a lower level of prostate cancers is still seen this year, although the diagnoses of lung and breast cancer are more or less on par with last year. There have been some models in the UK about late presentation and they have predicted an excess of deaths in two cancers of between 6,000 and 8,000. He said capacity is now being increased at quick access cancer clinics.
Online editors
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