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MOST POLITICAL COMMENTS ahead of Tuesday’s vote in the US presidential election agreed that there were three possible permutations by looking at conventional wisdom, polls, and analysis.
- Trump quickly won Florida, Arizona and North Carolina, leading to an inevitable reelection.
- A comfortable victory for Biden because states like Georgia and Florida turned decisively blue early in the countdown.
- A lengthy recount because results from the Midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were needed to separate the candidates.
Still, many people (particularly outside the United States) may look at the red and blue electoral map and wonder why it seems, with seven more states to declare, to be so close.
Major national polls had suggested that Biden was ahead, and many would-be pollsters had learned lessons and their work would be absolutely accurate. However, it is often the analysis of surveys that is the problem, even if the figures are within a margin of error.
Commentators had suggested all three of the above narratives, but many simply believed one of them.
Therefore, today many progressives might wonder how people continue to vote for Donald Trump in significant (record) numbers; while the most conservative voters will not be surprised by the current situation.
The reason we focus on explaining Trump’s vote here is because one thing is clear in the American election: America is completely divided. This election was more about the Trump presidency than a possible Biden presidency.
Democrats see the Trump presidency as the subject of controversy from start to finish: with allegations of sexual assault and racism, impeachment charges and questions about Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.
So for many, this result, even if Biden wins, is incomprehensible.
Meanwhile, Trump supporters see him as the only person they feel represents their views and has the same vision for America as they do.
The electoral college system also has a role to play: all electoral votes in a state go to a candidate who wins 52-48, to use the Brexit vote breakdown. (The Electoral College tally as it stands puts Biden slightly ahead of Trump.)
But there are more fundamental reasons why Trump has won 4 million more votes than in 2016, and the support of 48% of American voters so far (although much remains to be done). Here’s a look at those.
Trump supporters place their hands over their hearts during his National Anthem at an Oklahoma Republican Party meeting.
Source: Ian Maule via PA Images
American citizens don’t understand each other
“America did not speak, two America spoke,” Mark Little, former journalist and founder of Storyful, said on RTÉ Radio One this morning.
Looking at the results of the US elections, you will see that in general, the cities and suburbs of the US are colored blue for the Democratic candidate, while the surrounding rural areas are colored red for the Democratic candidate. Republican candidate.
In the run-up to the elections, there have been enlightening interviews with voters as to why they were voting for either candidate. Here’s a flavor that might clarify why people vote for Trump, despite some concerns about him:
The Guardian’s Today in Focus podcast spoke to Bo Copley in West Virginia, who lost his job at a coal mine before 2016 and credits Trump with revitalizing his industry; now he’s back at a job for the first time in years.
During the 2016 campaign, he asked Hilary Clinton how she could promise to put the coal miners out of work at a rally days before and also ‘pretend to be our friend’. She didn’t seem to have an answer, and despite concerns about Trump, she voted for him in both presidential elections.
Andrea Zupancich, Mayor of Minneapolis and a former Obama voter, explains in the same podcast episode that her support for Trump has been strengthened because the line he has taken on China has protected jobs nationwide from importing cheap goods:
I don’t necessarily agree with everything Trump has done, but I agree with most of what he has done. Like anyone else, I don’t always agree with my best friend, but she is still my friend.
On Vox’s Today Explained podcast, Trump-leaning voters said his emphasis on the important work farmers do is something they haven’t heard from Democrats.
A live broadcast of President Donald Trump speaking from the White House.
Source: AP / PA Images
Here’s another snippet from The Atlantic, which held 50 focus groups with Trump voters to understand their loyalty to the New Yorker:
… During the focus groups I convened during Trump’s impeachment, few of the women had anything good to say about Trump’s actions. But his true contempt was reserved for Democrats and “the media,” whom they unnecessarily viewed as Trump’s adversaries. And the fact is, they weren’t willing to put much weight on an argument about the rule of law and the abuse of power, because it had no visible impact on their lives.
Alice Butler-Short of ‘Women for Trump’ in Virginia said on RTE Radio One that she was dismayed by the media coverage of “negative negative negative” of the election results so far, and Trump’s “cult of personality” label.
He said Trump supporters are not stupid and are “down to earth people who love this country and love the fact that he loves the country.”
In an interview last night, former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway said there are a wide variety of issues that lead people to vote the way they do:
“Hispanics care much more than immigration, that’s important, but they also worry about many other issues. Older people worry more about health care and women worry about more than abortion.
“I think the voters reminded all of us that we threw many different issues, ideas, images, and individuals into our voting pot … and then we made our decision.”
We are in a “50-50” United States of America, as one commentator put it this morning.
It’s the stupid economy
In a Gallup poll, 56% of Americans at the end of the 2020 campaign reported being satisfied with the way Joe Biden’s campaign was run, while 46% say the same about the Trump campaign . That Trump percentage is remarkably high for an incumbent.
The reason for that satisfaction may lie in this CNN exit poll.
Source: CNN exit poll
It showed that the economy was the main reason 34% of people voted. On this front, Trump is seen to have performed well, presiding over an era of steady GDP growth.
21% said that racial inequality was the most important issue for their vote, 11% said that crime / safety was the most important and 11% said that health care was the most important.
The coronavirus pandemic wasn’t much of a concern either, according to the exit poll, with 18% saying that was the biggest problem. Forty-eight percent said US efforts to contain the virus are going “well,” compared to 51% who said they were going “bad.”
A case study: Latin Americans in Florida
Trump’s major victory in Florida is not entirely surprising, and has a lot to do with his support among Latino men and his denunciation of left-wing governments in Latin America.
In Florida, this demographic is led by Cubans who loathe the communist government in Havana, against which Trump took a hard line during his presidency and presidential campaign.
Supporters of President Donald Trump gather for a rally ahead of the start of a motorcade of hundreds of cars, at Tropical Park in Miami.
Source: Rebecca Blackwell
The high-profile shifting status was seen as critical to Trump’s re-election: The overall analysis of why Trump won Florida stems from his anti-communist rhetoric and also his popularity with rural white voters, experts said.
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“The Democrats lost the Hispanic vote. Not only among Cubans. Also Venezuelans, Argentines, Bolivians, Colombians. Everyone here is in favor of Trump, ”said Eduardo Gamarra, professor of political science at Florida International University.
A New York Times / Siena College poll found that Biden leads by 34 percentage points among Latino voters, but with Latino men, his lead drops to 8 points.
The anti-racism protests that swept the United States after the police assassination of George Floyd in May did not persuade Florida Latinos to vote for Biden, who unlike Trump supports the Black Lives Matter movement, as they do not identify with black voters in the United States, Gamarra said. .
South Americans living in Florida tend to be from the middle and upper class in their home countries, he added.
But Latinos in the rest of the country have a different image of themselves because of their social origin, and they are more engaged in the civil rights debate.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted last night that “We have been sounding the alarm about Democratic vulnerabilities with Latinos for a long, long time.”
An article in The Atlantic titled ‘What Liberals Don’t Understand About Pro-Trump Latinos’ explains why they are staunchly in favor of the businessman.
“We pride ourselves on being self-sufficient. We don’t want a permanent handout ”, Barbara Carrasco, an El Paso businesswoman. “President Trump really wants everyone to have a chance to succeed.”
As one voter said (paraphrased): “He can build the wall if he wants, I’m already on this side.”
With AFP report
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