[ad_1]
It is not the first time that in this pandemic, Dublin is emerging as the possible child problem of the elimination of the virus.
On Monday, Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan singled out the capital for its “stubbornly” high Covid-19 numbers, which is confirmed by the fact that Dublin accounted for 321 of the 767 cases (or 42 %) reported that day. .
Tuesday’s figures were more encouraging, with 96 of the 322 most recent cases (or 30 percent) occurring in Dublin.
Amid otherwise positive trends at the national level, public health officials are concerned that Dublin could prove to be a harder bone to break in terms of reducing the number of cases.
So it was last month, when infections in Dublin began to rise again just three weeks after the introduction of Level 3 restrictions there on September 21. Initially, the tighter restrictions appeared to be working as the number of cases declined, but this effect turned out to be temporary and the upward trend resumed.
Level 5
Scared by this failure to flatten the Dublin curve, the government decided to accept the advice of public health officials and opt for Level 5 restrictions nationwide in late October.
Our experience with this pandemic has shown that localized outbreaks of the virus outside of large cities are easier to contain, even when infection rates have skyrocketed. No number of baptisms and club championship celebrations in border counties can hide the fact that population densities and the number of raw cases involved are relatively low. This, and the scattered nature of rural life, makes it easier to search for sources of the virus and contain it.
Specific clusters
Previous outbreaks in Midland counties were linked to specific clusters in meat plants that could be the specific target of infection control measures.
In contrast, large cities, by their densely populated nature, often more disadvantaged and with younger populations and greater immigration, are giant reservoirs of potential infections. In many parts of the world, Covid-19 has made its way through many urban centers, and it would be foolish to think that Dublin and other Irish cities could escape this fate.
During the first months of the pandemic, Dublin accounted for about half of all cases in Ireland. This proportion decreased as outbreaks occurred around border counties and in the central region, but now appears to be increasing again as the situation outside the capital is brought under control.
Limited local data
It’s hard to read much about the limited local data available, but the highest case rates in Dublin appear to be in the newer suburbs in the west of the county. Public health officials have worked hard to minimize infections in risk groups and have been very successful in this work, at least until recently. Public adherence to restrictions is lower in Dublin than the rest of the country, but only slightly, polls show.
It wouldn’t take a rocket scientist to suspect that we may see a new hit in cases as a continuation of the Halloween festivities, which were moderate this year, but not uniformly. However, that impact should be temporary, and the overall drop in cases nationwide should continue as the impact of the Level 5 restrictions, introduced on October 22, begins to be felt starting next week.
However, the success of the closure will ultimately depend on what happens in Dublin. That will depend on the implementation of an effective contract tracking system capable of tracking the virus as quickly as possible after cases are identified.
[ad_2]