September deaths ‘generally online’ with previous years after April peak

The number of deaths observed in September is “in line with mortality statistics from previous years,” according to a new analysis by the Central Statistical Office (CSO).

The CSO carried out an “experimental” analysis of death notices posted on the RIP.ie website in an attempt to track mortality trends “in real time” in Ireland during the Covid-19 pandemic.

While the 2,353 death notifications published in September 2020 were consistent with those of previous years, there was a “sharp increase” in death notifications published in April 2020.

This increase caused the number of death notices to rise from 2,861 in March to 3,502 the following month.

By comparison, the average number of deaths for April during the years 2013 to 2017 was around 2,500.

Excess mortality

Over the months of the pandemic from March to September 2020, the OSC has estimated the “excess mortality” in Ireland to be between 876 and 1,192 deaths.

Excess mortality is the number of deaths above those likely to be experienced under normal circumstances.

The CSO said that as the excess mortality is estimated to be less than the 1,806 deaths reported in relation to Covid-19, it indicates that the Department of Health data on Covid-19 “comprehensively captures the impact of the pandemic on the mortality in Ireland “.

Due to the Irish custom of holding funerals within two to three days of death, these notices are generally posted quickly and efficiently.

“Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, we began to explore experimental ways to obtain updated mortality data,” said CSO statistician John Flanaghan.

“Since the end of March 2020, the CSO has been using the RIP.ie website to keep track of death notices … Due to the Irish custom of holding funerals within two to three days of death , these notices are generally posted quickly and efficiently, providing a valuable collective source means of tracking deaths. “

The CSO found that the average time between the date of death and publication on RIP.ie is just over a day, compared to a statutory time limit for death registration in the state of three months.

He cautioned that his analysis of excess mortality was a “speculative estimate based on experimental data” that had not been adjusted to account for changes in age, structure or other factors in the population.

The CSO also found a recent increase in death notices listing “home” as the place of death, from around 16% in October 2019 to around 25% in September.

Mentions of senior facilities registered with HIQA decreased from a high of 1237 in April 2020 to 457 in September 2020.

The full OSC analysis can be found here.